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August 14th, 2019
Consensus: 9.0 o/u
Our Model: 12.08 o/u (★★★★★ OVER)
Final Score: Athletics Won 9-5
Situation Before First Pitch
This battle between the Oakland Athletics and San Francisco Giants back on August 14th had a consensus run line set at 9.0. The Giants offense had produced 12 runs over two games leading up to it and the A’s offense had been in good shape as well, scoring 42 runs over nine games prior. On top of this, the game featured two pitchers that were struggling heavily.
BetQL had the over pegged as a five-star rating, as our MLB model projected that the run line should be drastically higher at 12.08. The gap in the consensus run line and BetQL’s made this bet the highest possible rating, and for good reason. Tyler Beede entered the contest after posting an absurd 8.38 ERA over four prior outings and Homer Bailey allowed seven runs in his previous start. On top of that, the Oakland bullpen had posted a 5.74 ERA over nine days leading up to the contest.
The run output went as BetQL projected, and Beede got trampled for four runs over 4.0 innings and the A’s bullpen imploded for five runs over just two innings. The Giants bullpen also coughed up five runs over five innings. Matt Chapman crushed two homers in the contest, which shouldn’t come as a surprise with his .251 ISO against righties. Mike Yastrzemski also launched a homer and he’s providing a healthy .245 ISO against right-handed pitching. The run total ended up at 14 for the day, nearly five runs over the consensus run line, and nearly two runs over BetQL’s run line.
The BetQL Difference
Bettors followed BetQL’s suggestion with 99 percent of the money being placed on the over, including a 34 percent pro edge sharp bet. The 99 percent of money that supported the over picked up a nice win with plenty of confidence behind BetQL’s advice.
Note: Advanced statistics were found on FanGraphs.