Brewers vs. Padres: Odds, Tips, and Betting Trends For May 24

Game 1 of this series between the Milwaukee Brewers (26-16) and the San Diego Padres (28-14) was an exciting one that went to extra innings, with San Diego walking it off in the 10th inning. The Padres have been red-hot recently, winners of five straight games and eight of their last 10 contests. They'll send out Blake Snell to try and get yet another win and extend their streak, while the Brewers will counter with reigning NL Cy Young award winner Corbin Burnes.

Let's start out with the road team, the Brew Crew, and their starter on the mound. Burnes has once again been great this season, entering this game with a fantastic 2.27 ERA and an insane 0.83 WHIP. He's been a strikeout machine as usual, with 62 K's in 51.2 innings of work for over a 30% strikeout rate.

However, there are a couple of concerns to note. He's already allowed eight home runs this season, which is a pretty astronomical number. It could be because guys are really getting the barrel on the ball when they do make contact, with his Barrel Rate tripling from 2021 so far. His xERA sits nearly a run higher at 3.16 than his actual ERA, so perhaps some regression is coming his way. He'll face a Padres offense that is in the middle of the pack in both wRC+ and wOBA, and that’s with Manny Machado being an early NL MVP candidate.

As for the home team, the Padres have been getting otherworldly contributions from Machado on offense, but the rest of the team has somewhat struggled to get things going. As you can see from the numbers above, their offense hasn't been what has carried them to this point, rather, their pitching has done that for the most part.

They will send Blake Snell out to the mound tonight for just his second start of the season. He was awful in his first start against the Phillies, going just 3.2 innings and allowing three runs and three walks. He has not been the same pitcher since leaving the Rays a few years ago and has really struggled with allowing contact and control. While it's very early this year and we can't judge him quite yet, we can look at his 2021 numbers, which weren't very good. His 4.82 xERA was a half-run higher than his actual 4.20 ERA, and he ranked in the bottom 10 percent in both Walk Rate and Barrel Rate, which proves the point of allowing hard contact and struggling with his location. He made one start against Milwaukee last season and was charged with five runs over 3.2 innings in a loss. That was against a pretty bad 2021 Brewers offense. In 2022, Milwaukee has made significant improvements, with their wRC+ ranking 13th and their wOBA seventh.

I make first-five bets on a nightly basis because that's how I love to bet baseball. In this game, I'd recommend taking Milwaukee moneyline F5. Burnes has been great this season, and he's coming off one of his worst performances of the year. He should bounce back here, and his team has the advantage on offense as well.