Predicting An AL Central Winner: Twins, Guardians or White Sox?

Three teams will fight for the division crown

The AL Central has been one of the most unpredictable divisions in baseball for quite some time now, always having multiple teams that either exceed expectations or disappoint in a big way. This year is no different, as we once again have a tight race at the top that I think most people dismissed before the season began. That is why it is very dangerous to bet a heavy favorite before the season even begins, because there is always a decent chance they aren't really as much of a lock as you think. Let's take a look at the teams that are still in the race, and come up with a winning wager on who will win this highly-contested division.

The Chicago White Sox started the season as massive favorites to take this division, reaching as short as -200 at some books. There is no way I would ever recommend betting a line like that, and this season is a perfect example of why. Yes, the White Sox are the best team on paper and for all intents and purposes SHOULD be winning the division. However, that is simply not the case in early July now, with the team faltering to the tune of a mediocre 38-40 record. Injuries have had a part to play in this, as have horrible decisions by their way-past-his-prime manager Tony La Russa. Still, they are just four games out of the AL Wild Card race right now, and are 5.5 games behind in the division. If they can get healthy and pull themselves together as a team, they have the talent to come back and win this division. That's why BetMGM has them at +150 to win it.

The Minnesota Twins signed superstar Carlos Correa in the offseason, which boosted their odds to win the division, but they were still quite a bit behind the White Sox at most books to start the season. Now they sit at +110 favorites to win the AL Central in early July at BetMGM, but that isn't that far ahead of Chicago. A few years ago, Minnesota looked poised to compete for a long time with young talent like Byron Buxton finally breaking out, and guys like Max Kepler doing the same. Last season, they completely fell off a cliff and finished last in the division. This season, they have the opportunity to get back to the top, but questions remain with the team. Can Joe Ryan and Chris Archer really keep pitching as good as they have been down the stretch? The offense really hasn't been that explosive, and if their pitching starts to come down from their pedestal, that could spell trouble.

The Cleveland Guardians are the "exceeding expectations" team this season in the AL Central, as they weren't predicted to be in the race at this point of the season. Their pitching continues to be their biggest strength, with only one member of their starting rotation with over a 4.00 ERA. The offense is just bad, as it was expected to be. Jose Ramirez is like a diamond in the rough and is easily their best offensive player. With a 40-38 record, this is what the Guardians appear to be this season. They are a middle-of-the-road team that has a great ability to limit opposing offenses, but can't score runs themselves. Sound familiar? It's like their calling card at this point, but they have avoided complete regression and collapse so far. They are +375 to win the division, behind both the White Sox and Twins on the odds board, even though they are ahead of Chicago in the standings.

For my money, the White Sox offer the most value, as difficult as that is to say. They have the most talent and are getting healthier. Chicago is in striking distance of Minnesota and right behind Cleveland, and they have a ton of games left to play against both teams over the second half of the season. +150 isn't a ton of value, but there is a reason they are right on the heels of Minnesota's +110 number and far ahead of Cleveland's +375. Oddsmakers still think they have a good chance to take this thing, even if it looks bleak and disgusting now.

Pick: Chicago +150

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