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August 13th, 2019
Consensus: D-Backs -135
Our Model: D-Backs -222 (★★★★★)
Situation Before First Pitch
The meeting between the Arizona Diamondbacks and Colorado Rockies back on August 13th had a consensus moneyline of -135 in favor of the Snakes. However, the BetQL model had this game set at -222 for Arizona, a hefty 87-point difference. The massive disparity made this a five-star wager for bettors, the highest designation in our model.
The Rockies needed a spot-start for this matchup and elected to send Jeff Hoffman to the mound for the first time in over two weeks. He had been a disaster coming in to that start, walking eight over his previous two outings (7 2/3 innings). His ERA over June and July stood at 6.17. Meanwhile, Zac Gallen had been cruising, posting a 2.40 ERA over eight starts while allowing more than two runs in an outing just once.
Gallen held opponents to a .191 average with the Miami Marlins earlier in the season. He had also allowed just three home runs in 36 1/3 innings and was clearly a top-notch prospect at that point. It seems that the consensus moneyline setters failed to fully realize this, along with Hoffman’s woes. As it turns out, Hoffman had exited a start against the Diamondbacks this season after 2 2/3 innings. He needed 82 pitches to get the eight outs in that one.
On top of all that, the Rockies had lost six of seven coming into this contest, with the Diamondbacks winning six of nine. The Colorado bullpen had posted a 6.96 ERA and 6.24 FIP over the month, prior to this game. They were allowing a gross 43.8 percent hard hit rate as well. Things simply couldn’t have been going much worse for the Rockies heading into this game.
As it turned out, Hoffman was a disaster, allowing seven runs off four big-flies over just 2.0 innings of work. Jarrod Dyson, Christian Walker, Nick Ahmed, and David Peralta all launched homers off Hoffman, putting Colorado in a major hole right off the bat. Gallen stuck to his ways, allowing two runs in 4.0 innings of work, leaving the game with a five-run lead. The Arizona bullpen shut the door afterward, as they had delivered a solid 2.63 ERA over the month leading up to that point.
The BetQL Difference
Once again, BetQL’s proprietary model nailed this 5-star bet. With too many data points to count, you don’t need to do any research in order to make the most informed bets. Simply log into BetQL and access everything you need to know about today’s slate on our MLB dashboards!
Note: Advanced statistics were found on FanGraphs. The advice above represents the writer's personal view and does not reflect or represent BetQL's stance or interest in any way.