Don't Ignore This AL MVP Sleeper

He had 48 homers and 117 RBIs in 2019 and has an optimistic 2021 outlook

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The Kansas City Royals had a fantastic offseason and are poised to contend as a small-market American League club in 2021. 

However, sportsbooks haven’t given them any respect.

DraftKings is giving them a regular-season win total of just 72.5 and they're listed with the worst odds to win the American League Central Division (+4500) on PointsBet. Further, they’re at +6000 to win the AL Pennant on FanDuel (the 2nd-worst odds) and are at +10000 to win the World Series on most books.

In other words, labeling them as an afterthought may be generous.

While betting over 72.5 regular season wins is clearly the best bet (this is a playoff-caliber team), taking advantage of +10000 odds for Jorge Soler to win the AL MVP Award on DraftKings, FanDuel, PointsBet and BetMGM is a smart move. Keep reading to find out why.

Sign up for a new BetMGM account now and get a risk-free bet up to $600!

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Surrounded By Talent

Just one year removed from hitting 48 home runs and driving in 117 runs, Soler is in prime position to post monster numbers in 2021. Soler will have the benefit of hitting behind Whit Merrifield (+1500 odds to lead the MLB in hits on PointsBet - 4th highest) and Adalberto Mondesi. BetMGM is giving Mondesi the highest odds to lead the MLB in steals (+120) and is giving him +8000 odds to win the AL MVP, for context.

Not only will both Merrifield and Mondesi’s speed and on-base skills lead to increased RBI opportunities for Soler, but he will have newfound protection around him in the middle of the lineup with newcomer Carlos Santana as well as returning starters in the form of catcher Salvador Perez and third baseman Hunter Dozier.

You can make a logical argument that the Royals have the 4th best lineup behind the Chicago White Sox, Toronto Blue Jays and New York Yankees.

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Advanced Stats Create Optimistic Outlook

Soler’s career strikeout rate of 27.9% is concerning, but his career .222 ISO through 1985 plate appearances in 512 games highlights his presence as a true power hitter. 

Since the start of his breakout year in 2019, Soler’s been mashing the baseball. Per FanGraphs, his average exit velocity (92.5 mph), barrel percentages (16.3% and 18.5%) and hard hit percentages (49.8% and 50.0%) are elite over that span. For comparison, Mike Trout’s average exit velocity in that span is 92.3 mph, barrel percentages are 17.5% and 15.0% and hard hit percentages are 43.8% and 55.1%. 

Not bad, huh?

Early in his career with the Chicago Cubs, Soler was a ground ball hitter, which didn’t suit his raw power. Since joining the Royals and especially over the last two years, he has made some clear adjustments to his launch angle. 

Over that span, he had GB/FB ratios of 0.95 and 0.97, lower than his career rate of 1.09. Further, his 15.5 degree launch angles were above his 14.4 degree career mark. As a result, 28.1% of his fly balls hit were home runs in 2019 and 22.9% of them were long balls in the abbreviated 2020 season. 

For comparison, in his previous two seasons with the Royals, those numbers were a dismal 7.4% and 17.0%.

While Trout is clearly the favorite to win AL MVP this year, sportsbooks are giving Soler less than a 1% chance to win the award. That’s simply absurd due to his batted ball profile and the weapons around him in a quietly-dangerous Royals lineup. 

Remember you heard it here first!