New York Mets vsWashington Nationals Prediction
The Washington Nationals are 12-16 at home this season and the New York Mets are 15-19 on the road this season. This is a close match-up with both teams having a 45 to 55 percent chance of winning based on 10,000 game simulations generated one play at a time by the AccuScore Simulation Supercomputer. Nationals' starter Erick Fedde is forecasted to have a better game than Mets' starter Joey Lucchesi. Erick Fedde has a 31% chance of having a Quality Start (QS) while Joey Lucchesi has a 25% chance of a QS. If Erick Fedde has a quality start the Nationals has a 68% chance of winning. His simulated strikeout to walk ratio is 2.9 and he has a 19% chance of having a 5 to 1 K/BB ratio. When he has a 5/1 ratio the Nationals win 54%. In Joey Lucchesi quality starts the Mets win 64%. He has a 39% chance of having a 5 to 1 K/BB ratio and if he does his team wins 64% of simulations. In simulations we tracked the batter for each team that was most productive based his average hits, walks and RBI per simulation. The most productive batter for the Washington Nationals is Eric Thames who averaged 2.37 hits+walks+RBI. He has a 41% chance of having a big game with 3+ Hits, Walks, RBI and if he has a big game the Nationals have a 65% chance of winning. The most productive batter for the New York Mets is Pete Alonso who averaged 2.48 hits+walks+RBI. He has a 43% chance of having a big game with 3+ Hits, Walks, RBI and if he has a big game the Mets have a 62% chance of winning.