Minnesota Twins vsToronto Blue Jays Prediction
The Toronto Blue Jays are 42-32 at home this season and are heavy favorites to beat the Minnesota Twins who are 30-43 on the road this season. The Blue Jays have a better than 60% chance of winning based on 10,000 game simulations generated one play at a time by the AccuScore Simulation Supercomputer. Blue Jays' starter Jose Berrios is forecasted to have a better game than Twins' starter Luke Farrell. Jose Berrios has a 60% chance of having a Quality Start (QS) while Luke Farrell has a 31% chance of a QS. If Jose Berrios has a quality start the Blue Jays has a 83% chance of winning. His simulated strikeout to walk ratio is 4.6 and he has a 31% chance of having a 5 to 1 K/BB ratio. When he has a 5/1 ratio the Blue Jays win 70%. In Luke Farrell quality starts the Twins win 55%. He has a 24% chance of having a 5 to 1 K/BB ratio and if he does his team wins 55% of simulations. In simulations we tracked the batter for each team that was most productive based his average hits, walks and RBI per simulation. The most productive batter for the Toronto Blue Jays is Vladimir Guerrero Jr. who averaged 2.52 hits+walks+RBI. He has a 44% chance of having a big game with 3+ Hits, Walks, RBI and if he has a big game the Blue Jays have a 78% chance of winning. The most productive batter for the Minnesota Twins is Josh Donaldson who averaged 2 hits+walks+RBI. He has a 31% chance of having a big game with 3+ Hits, Walks, RBI and if he has a big game the Twins have a 42% chance of winning.