Miami Marlins vs

Tampa Bay Rays Prediction

The Tampa Bay Rays are 49-29 at home this season and are solid favorites to beat the Miami Marlins who are 24-49 on the road this season. The Rays have a better than 55% chance of winning based on 10,000 game simulations generated one play at a time by the AccuScore Simulation Supercomputer. Rays' starter TJ Friedl is forecasted to have a better game than Marlins' starter Jesus Luzardo. TJ Friedl has a 53% chance of having a Quality Start (QS) while Jesus Luzardo has a 27% chance of a QS. If TJ Friedl has a quality start the Rays has a 81% chance of winning. His simulated strikeout to walk ratio is 10.5 and he has a 72% chance of having a 5 to 1 K/BB ratio. When he has a 5/1 ratio the Rays win 66%. In Jesus Luzardo quality starts the Marlins win 65%. He has a 20% chance of having a 5 to 1 K/BB ratio and if he does his team wins 65% of simulations. In simulations we tracked the batter for each team that was most productive based his average hits, walks and RBI per simulation. The most productive batter for the Tampa Bay Rays is Ji-Man Choi who averaged 2.35 hits+walks+RBI. He has a 41% chance of having a big game with 3+ Hits, Walks, RBI and if he has a big game the Rays have a 71% chance of winning. The most productive batter for the Miami Marlins is Nick Fortes who averaged 3.32 hits+walks+RBI. He has a 63% chance of having a big game with 3+ Hits, Walks, RBI and if he has a big game the Marlins have a 45% chance of winning.