New York Mets vs

St. Louis Cardinals Prediction

The New York Mets are 5-8 on the road this season and are heavy favorites to beat the St. Louis Cardinals who are 8-6 at home. The Mets have a better than 60% chance of winning based on 10,000 game simulations generated one play at a time by the AccuScore Simulation Supercomputer. Mets' starter Jacob deGrom is forecasted to have a better game than Cardinals' starter Johan Oviedo. Jacob deGrom has a 47% chance of having a Quality Start (QS) while Johan Oviedo has a 35% chance of a QS. If Jacob deGrom has a quality start the Mets has a 77% chance of winning. His simulated strikeout to walk ratio is 8.2 and he has a 56% chance of having a 5 to 1 K/BB ratio. When he has a 5/1 ratio the Mets win 70%. In Johan Oviedo quality starts the Cardinals win 51%. He has a 24% chance of having a 5 to 1 K/BB ratio and if he does his team wins 51% of simulations. In simulations we tracked the batter for each team that was most productive based his average hits, walks and RBI per simulation. The most productive batter for the St. Louis Cardinals is Nolan Arenado who averaged 2.02 hits+walks+RBI. He has a 33% chance of having a big game with 3+ Hits, Walks, RBI and if he has a big game the Cardinals have a 46% chance of winning. The most productive batter for the New York Mets is Pete Alonso who averaged 2.44 hits+walks+RBI. He has a 41% chance of having a big game with 3+ Hits, Walks, RBI and if he has a big game the Mets have a 82% chance of winning.