Philadelphia Phillies vs

St. Louis Cardinals Prediction

The St. Louis Cardinals are 53-28 at home this season and are solid favorites to beat the Philadelphia Phillies who are 40-41 on the road this season. The Cardinals have a better than 55% chance of winning based on 10,000 game simulations generated one play at a time by the AccuScore Simulation Supercomputer. Both starters have a good chance of having a quality start. Jose Quintana has a 46% chance of a QS and Zack Wheeler a 43% chance. If Jose Quintana has a quality start the Cardinals has a 78% chance of winning. His simulated strikeout to walk ratio is 3.7 and he has a 32% chance of having a 5 to 1 K/BB ratio. When he has a 5/1 ratio the Cardinals win 60%. If Zack Wheeler has a quality start the Phillies has a 64% chance of winning. His simulated strikeout to walk ratio is 3.1 and he has a 26% chance of having a 5 to 1 K/BB ratio. When he has a 5/1 ratio the Phillies win 46%. In simulations we tracked the batter for each team that was most productive based his average hits, walks and RBI per simulation. The most productive batter for the St. Louis Cardinals is Paul Goldschmidt who averaged 2.59 hits+walks+RBI. He has a 46% chance of having a big game with 3+ Hits, Walks, RBI and if he has a big game the Cardinals have a 67% chance of winning. The most productive batter for the Philadelphia Phillies is Bryce Harper who averaged 2.15 hits+walks+RBI. He has a 35% chance of having a big game with 3+ Hits, Walks, RBI and if he has a big game the Phillies have a 59% chance of winning.