St. Louis Cardinals vs

San Diego Padres Prediction

The San Diego Padres are 37-32 at home this season and are solid favorites to beat the St. Louis Cardinals who are 36-34 on the road this season. The Padres have a better than 55% chance of winning based on 10,000 game simulations generated one play at a time by the AccuScore Simulation Supercomputer. Padres' starter Joe Musgrove is forecasted to have a better game than Cardinals' starter Jack Flaherty. Joe Musgrove has a 50% chance of having a Quality Start (QS) while Jack Flaherty has a 28% chance of a QS. If Joe Musgrove has a quality start the Padres has a 80% chance of winning. His simulated strikeout to walk ratio is 3.8 and he has a 31% chance of having a 5 to 1 K/BB ratio. When he has a 5/1 ratio the Padres win 66%. In Jack Flaherty quality starts the Cardinals win 69%. He has a 1% chance of having a 5 to 1 K/BB ratio and if he does his team wins 69% of simulations. In simulations we tracked the batter for each team that was most productive based his average hits, walks and RBI per simulation. The most productive batter for the San Diego Padres is Manny Machado who averaged 2.86 hits+walks+RBI. He has a 52% chance of having a big game with 3+ Hits, Walks, RBI and if he has a big game the Padres have a 68% chance of winning. The most productive batter for the St. Louis Cardinals is Paul Goldschmidt who averaged 2.64 hits+walks+RBI. He has a 45% chance of having a big game with 3+ Hits, Walks, RBI and if he has a big game the Cardinals have a 53% chance of winning.