St. Louis Cardinals vs

Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction

The St. Louis Cardinals are 10-9 on the road this season and are heavy favorites to beat the Pittsburgh Pirates who are 9-10 at home. The Cardinals have a better than 55% chance of winning based on 10,000 game simulations generated one play at a time by the AccuScore Simulation Supercomputer. Cardinals' starter Adam Wainwright is forecasted to have a better game than Pirates' starter Zach Thompson. Adam Wainwright has a 55% chance of having a Quality Start (QS) while Zach Thompson has a 44% chance of a QS. If Adam Wainwright has a quality start the Cardinals has a 75% chance of winning. His simulated strikeout to walk ratio is 2.4 and he has a 10% chance of having a 5 to 1 K/BB ratio. When he has a 5/1 ratio the Cardinals win 57%. In Zach Thompson quality starts the Pirates win 66%. He has a 10% chance of having a 5 to 1 K/BB ratio and if he does his team wins 66% of simulations. In simulations we tracked the batter for each team that was most productive based his average hits, walks and RBI per simulation. The most productive batter for the Pittsburgh Pirates is Dan Vogelbach who averaged 2.36 hits+walks+RBI. He has a 41% chance of having a big game with 3+ Hits, Walks, RBI and if he has a big game the Pirates have a 54% chance of winning. The most productive batter for the St. Louis Cardinals is Nolan Arenado who averaged 2.66 hits+walks+RBI. He has a 46% chance of having a big game with 3+ Hits, Walks, RBI and if he has a big game the Cardinals have a 70% chance of winning.