Cincinnati Reds vsPittsburgh Pirates Prediction
The Cincinnati Reds are 4-8 on the road this season and are heavy favorites to beat the Pittsburgh Pirates who are 5-7 at home. The Reds have a better than 55% chance of winning based on 10,000 game simulations generated one play at a time by the AccuScore Simulation Supercomputer. Both starters have a relatively low chance of having a quality start. Mitch Keller has a 30% chance of a QS and Jeff Hoffman a 29% chance. If Mitch Keller has a quality start the Pirates has a 60% chance of winning. His simulated strikeout to walk ratio is 3.9 and he has a 26% chance of having a 5 to 1 K/BB ratio. When he has a 5/1 ratio the Pirates win 40%. If Jeff Hoffman has a quality start the Reds has a 75% chance of winning. His simulated strikeout to walk ratio is 3.3 and he has a 30% chance of having a 5 to 1 K/BB ratio. When he has a 5/1 ratio the Reds win 64%. In simulations we tracked the batter for each team that was most productive based his average hits, walks and RBI per simulation. The most productive batter for the Pittsburgh Pirates is Bryan Reynolds who averaged 2.42 hits+walks+RBI. He has a 42% chance of having a big game with 3+ Hits, Walks, RBI and if he has a big game the Pirates have a 50% chance of winning. The most productive batter for the Cincinnati Reds is Jesse Winker who averaged 2.71 hits+walks+RBI. He has a 49% chance of having a big game with 3+ Hits, Walks, RBI and if he has a big game the Reds have a 75% chance of winning.