Washington Nationals vsPhiladelphia Phillies Prediction
The Philadelphia Phillies are 27-25 at home this season and are heavy favorites to beat the Washington Nationals who are 19-31 on the road this season. The Phillies have a better than 60% chance of winning based on 10,000 game simulations generated one play at a time by the AccuScore Simulation Supercomputer. Phillies' starter Kyle Gibson is forecasted to have a better game than Nationals' starter Josiah Gray. Kyle Gibson has a 58% chance of having a Quality Start (QS) while Josiah Gray has a 39% chance of a QS. If Kyle Gibson has a quality start the Phillies has a 84% chance of winning. His simulated strikeout to walk ratio is 4.3 and he has a 39% chance of having a 5 to 1 K/BB ratio. When he has a 5/1 ratio the Phillies win 73%. In Josiah Gray quality starts the Nationals win 51%. He has a 22% chance of having a 5 to 1 K/BB ratio and if he does his team wins 51% of simulations. In simulations we tracked the batter for each team that was most productive based his average hits, walks and RBI per simulation. The most productive batter for the Philadelphia Phillies is Kyle Schwarber who averaged 2.38 hits+walks+RBI. He has a 41% chance of having a big game with 3+ Hits, Walks, RBI and if he has a big game the Phillies have a 79% chance of winning. The most productive batter for the Washington Nationals is Luke Voit who averaged 1.8 hits+walks+RBI. He has a 27% chance of having a big game with 3+ Hits, Walks, RBI and if he has a big game the Nationals have a 45% chance of winning.