Pittsburgh Pirates vsPhiladelphia Phillies Prediction
The Philadelphia Phillies are 44-33 at home this season and are heavy favorites to beat the Pittsburgh Pirates who are 23-54 on the road this season. The Phillies have a better than 60% chance of winning based on 10,000 game simulations generated one play at a time by the AccuScore Simulation Supercomputer. Phillies' starter Ranger Suarez is forecasted to have a better game than Pirates' starter Wil Crowe. Ranger Suarez has a 47% chance of having a Quality Start (QS) while Wil Crowe has a 23% chance of a QS. If Ranger Suarez has a quality start the Phillies has a 84% chance of winning. His simulated strikeout to walk ratio is 5.1 and he has a 42% chance of having a 5 to 1 K/BB ratio. When he has a 5/1 ratio the Phillies win 78%. In Wil Crowe quality starts the Pirates win 45%. He has a 18% chance of having a 5 to 1 K/BB ratio and if he does his team wins 45% of simulations. In simulations we tracked the batter for each team that was most productive based his average hits, walks and RBI per simulation. The most productive batter for the Philadelphia Phillies is Bryce Harper who averaged 2.93 hits+walks+RBI. He has a 53% chance of having a big game with 3+ Hits, Walks, RBI and if he has a big game the Phillies have a 83% chance of winning. The most productive batter for the Pittsburgh Pirates is Bryan Reynolds who averaged 2.06 hits+walks+RBI. He has a 32% chance of having a big game with 3+ Hits, Walks, RBI and if he has a big game the Pirates have a 35% chance of winning.