Houston Astros vs

New York Yankees Prediction

Houston Astros vs New York Yankees Prediction

The New York Yankees appear to have gotten their act together, winning three in a row to get to .500. However, that winning streak will be put to the test on Tuesday when the Bronx Bombers begin a three-game home series against the Houston Astros. At home, the Yankees are -125 favorites to win. However, the Astros are also one of the hottest teams in baseball right now and have a moneyline of +105 for Tuesday’s series opener.

New York Yankees Preview

New York’s three straight wins should come with a big asterisk, as they came against the lowly Tigers, who are by far the worst team in baseball right now. Nevertheless, the Yankees have won five of their last six games overall, pulling within 2.5 games of the first-place Red Sox. With a win on Tuesday, they can go above .500 for the first time in nearly a month.

Of course, it’ll be the unreliable Domingo German on the mound for the Yankees on Tuesday. German had a few rough outings at the start of the season after sitting out the entire 2020 campaign. On the bright side, he has looked better in his last two starts, winning both outings. That includes seven shutout innings against the Orioles in his last start, allowing just three hits and striking out six. But it remains to be seen if he can handle a more formidable lineup.

Speaking of formidable lineup, the Yankees have looked like one in recent days, scoring 18 runs during their three-game sweep of the Tigers and averaging 5.5 runs per game over their last six games. Over the last week, the likes of Giancarlo Stanton, Gleyber Torres, and Gio Urshela have started to come alive offensively. The Yankees have been largely dependent on Aaron Judge and DJ LeMahieu for much of the season, so it’s a great sign that other players are finally getting involved.

Houston Astros Preview

The Astros actually did the Yankees a favor over the weekend by taking two of three games from the Rays. Houston looked abysmal during the middle of April while the Astros were dealing with the absence of several players due to COVID protocols. But the Astros have won eight of their last 11 games to get above .500 and pull within two games of Oakland atop the AL West. Also, outside of the Dodgers, the Astros have the best run-differential in baseball at the moment.

Not only are the Astros surgery but they will have ace Zack Greinke on the mound Tuesday night. The 37-year-old still looks like a pitcher who’s in the prime of his career, posting a 3.44 ERA over his six starts in April. To be fair, he’s had a couple of subpar outings this year, including a four-inning start against the Mariners last week. But Greinke has also had two starts this season when he’s pitched at least six innings without giving up a run, so he’s still capable of delivering an ace-like performance.

Perhaps more importantly, Greinke and the entire Houston pitching staff are getting plenty of run support these days. After dealing with injuries and absences in April, the Houston lineup is more or less at full strength nowadays. Yuli Gurriel and Michael Brantley have produced consistently since the start of the season. But Carlos Correa and Myles Straw are also swinging hot bats at the moment. Meanwhile, young slugger Kyle Tucker leads the team in homers despite a .188 batting average and could be a threat to go deep with a short right-field porch at Yankee Stadium.

Full Game Prediction

Even though the Yankees have a little momentum and confidence after three straight wins, the BetQL model is projecting the Astros to win on Tuesday. The jury is still out on German, especially against a Houston lineup that is averaging close to five runs per game this season. Greinke seems like the better bet to have a strong outing, even if the Yankees are showing signs of life offensively. Keep in mind that the Astros had Monday off and are 28-12 over the last two years following an off day. Plus, they’ve been playing good baseball for nearly two weeks whereas the Yankees could only be hot because they just played the 8-21 Tigers. All of those factors back up our model's prediction of the Astros beating the Yankees on Tuesday night.