San Diego Padres vsNew York Mets Prediction
The New York Mets are 54-27 at home this season and are solid favorites to beat the San Diego Padres who are 45-36 on the road this season. The Mets have a better than 55% chance of winning based on 10,000 game simulations generated one play at a time by the AccuScore Simulation Supercomputer. Both starters have a good chance of having a quality start. Max Scherzer has a 58% chance of a QS and Yu Darvish a 53% chance. If Max Scherzer has a quality start the Mets has a 75% chance of winning. His simulated strikeout to walk ratio is 3.8 and he has a 29% chance of having a 5 to 1 K/BB ratio. When he has a 5/1 ratio the Mets win 62%. If Yu Darvish has a quality start the Padres has a 62% chance of winning. His simulated strikeout to walk ratio is 3.8 and he has a 33% chance of having a 5 to 1 K/BB ratio. When he has a 5/1 ratio the Padres win 47%. In simulations we tracked the batter for each team that was most productive based his average hits, walks and RBI per simulation. The most productive batter for the New York Mets is Pete Alonso who averaged 2.14 hits+walks+RBI. He has a 35% chance of having a big game with 3+ Hits, Walks, RBI and if he has a big game the Mets have a 72% chance of winning. The most productive batter for the San Diego Padres is Manny Machado who averaged 2.06 hits+walks+RBI. He has a 33% chance of having a big game with 3+ Hits, Walks, RBI and if he has a big game the Padres have a 61% chance of winning.