Philadelphia Phillies vsNew York Mets Prediction
The New York Mets are 38-18 at home this season and are solid favorites to beat the Philadelphia Phillies who are 30-23 on the road this season. The Mets have a better than 55% chance of winning based on 10,000 game simulations generated one play at a time by the AccuScore Simulation Supercomputer. Mets' starter Max Scherzer is forecasted to have a better game than Phillies' starter Ranger Suarez. Max Scherzer has a 49% chance of having a Quality Start (QS) while Ranger Suarez has a 39% chance of a QS. If Max Scherzer has a quality start the Mets has a 78% chance of winning. His simulated strikeout to walk ratio is 8.1 and he has a 56% chance of having a 5 to 1 K/BB ratio. When he has a 5/1 ratio the Mets win 66%. In Ranger Suarez quality starts the Phillies win 58%. He has a 17% chance of having a 5 to 1 K/BB ratio and if he does his team wins 58% of simulations. In simulations we tracked the batter for each team that was most productive based his average hits, walks and RBI per simulation. The most productive batter for the New York Mets is Pete Alonso who averaged 2.49 hits+walks+RBI. He has a 43% chance of having a big game with 3+ Hits, Walks, RBI and if he has a big game the Mets have a 72% chance of winning. The most productive batter for the Philadelphia Phillies is Darick Hall who averaged 1.86 hits+walks+RBI. He has a 29% chance of having a big game with 3+ Hits, Walks, RBI and if he has a big game the Phillies have a 52% chance of winning.