San Diego Padres vsMiami Marlins Prediction
The San Diego Padres are 32-27 on the road this season and are heavy favorites to beat the Miami Marlins who are 23-32 at home. The Padres have a better than 55% chance of winning based on 10,000 game simulations generated one play at a time by the AccuScore Simulation Supercomputer. Padres' starter Joe Musgrove is forecasted to have a better game than Marlins' starter Sandy Alcantara. Joe Musgrove has a 60% chance of having a Quality Start (QS) while Sandy Alcantara has a 43% chance of a QS. If Joe Musgrove has a quality start the Padres has a 77% chance of winning. His simulated strikeout to walk ratio is 5 and he has a 40% chance of having a 5 to 1 K/BB ratio. When he has a 5/1 ratio the Padres win 64%. In Sandy Alcantara quality starts the Marlins win 59%. He has a 11% chance of having a 5 to 1 K/BB ratio and if he does his team wins 59% of simulations. In simulations we tracked the batter for each team that was most productive based his average hits, walks and RBI per simulation. The most productive batter for the Miami Marlins is Jon Berti who averaged 1.95 hits+walks+RBI. He has a 30% chance of having a big game with 3+ Hits, Walks, RBI and if he has a big game the Marlins have a 53% chance of winning. The most productive batter for the San Diego Padres is Juan Soto who averaged 2.52 hits+walks+RBI. He has a 45% chance of having a big game with 3+ Hits, Walks, RBI and if he has a big game the Padres have a 74% chance of winning.