San Diego Padres vs

Miami Marlins Prediction

The San Diego Padres are 23-23 on the road this season and are heavy favorites to beat the Miami Marlins who are 22-21 at home. The Padres have a better than 60% chance of winning based on 10,000 game simulations generated one play at a time by the AccuScore Simulation Supercomputer. Padres' starter Yu Darvish is forecasted to have a better game than Marlins' starter Pablo Lopez. Yu Darvish has a 42% chance of having a Quality Start (QS) while Pablo Lopez has a 29% chance of a QS. If Yu Darvish has a quality start the Padres has a 79% chance of winning. His simulated strikeout to walk ratio is 6.5 and he has a 49% chance of having a 5 to 1 K/BB ratio. When he has a 5/1 ratio the Padres win 68%. In Pablo Lopez quality starts the Marlins win 53%. He has a 40% chance of having a 5 to 1 K/BB ratio and if he does his team wins 53% of simulations. In simulations we tracked the batter for each team that was most productive based his average hits, walks and RBI per simulation. The most productive batter for the Miami Marlins is Starling Marte who averaged 1.99 hits+walks+RBI. He has a 30% chance of having a big game with 3+ Hits, Walks, RBI and if he has a big game the Marlins have a 48% chance of winning. The most productive batter for the San Diego Padres is Javier Guerra who averaged 3.86 hits+walks+RBI. He has a 86% chance of having a big game with 3+ Hits, Walks, RBI and if he has a big game the Padres have a 70% chance of winning.