Arizona Diamondbacks vsCincinnati Reds Prediction
The Cincinnati Reds are 7-2 at home this season and are solid favorites to beat the Arizona Diamondbacks who are 4-7 on the road this season. The Reds have a better than 55% chance of winning based on 10,000 game simulations generated one play at a time by the AccuScore Simulation Supercomputer. Reds' starter Tyler Mahle is forecasted to have a better game than Diamondbacks' starter Merrill Kelly. Tyler Mahle has a 35% chance of having a Quality Start (QS) while Merrill Kelly has a 24% chance of a QS. If Tyler Mahle has a quality start the Reds has a 80% chance of winning. His simulated strikeout to walk ratio is 4.1 and he has a 29% chance of having a 5 to 1 K/BB ratio. When he has a 5/1 ratio the Reds win 68%. In Merrill Kelly quality starts the Diamondbacks win 56%. He has a 31% chance of having a 5 to 1 K/BB ratio and if he does his team wins 56% of simulations. In simulations we tracked the batter for each team that was most productive based his average hits, walks and RBI per simulation. The most productive batter for the Cincinnati Reds is Tyler Naquin who averaged 2.5 hits+walks+RBI. He has a 44% chance of having a big game with 3+ Hits, Walks, RBI and if he has a big game the Reds have a 72% chance of winning. The most productive batter for the Arizona Diamondbacks is Ketel Marte who averaged 2.7 hits+walks+RBI. He has a 49% chance of having a big game with 3+ Hits, Walks, RBI and if he has a big game the Diamondbacks have a 49% chance of winning.