St. Louis Cardinals vsChicago Cubs Prediction
The Chicago Cubs are 38-38 at home this season and the St. Louis Cardinals are 42-35 on the road this season. This is a close match-up with both teams having a 45 to 55 percent chance of winning based on 10,000 game simulations generated one play at a time by the AccuScore Simulation Supercomputer. Cubs' starter Adrian Sampson is forecasted to have a better game than Cardinals' starter Jon Lester. Adrian Sampson has a 38% chance of having a Quality Start (QS) while Jon Lester has a 30% chance of a QS. If Adrian Sampson has a quality start the Cubs has a 70% chance of winning. His simulated strikeout to walk ratio is 4.8 and he has a 45% chance of having a 5 to 1 K/BB ratio. When he has a 5/1 ratio the Cubs win 55%. In Jon Lester quality starts the Cardinals win 62%. He has a 33% chance of having a 5 to 1 K/BB ratio and if he does his team wins 62% of simulations. In simulations we tracked the batter for each team that was most productive based his average hits, walks and RBI per simulation. The most productive batter for the Chicago Cubs is Frank Schwindel who averaged 2.43 hits+walks+RBI. He has a 42% chance of having a big game with 3+ Hits, Walks, RBI and if he has a big game the Cubs have a 63% chance of winning. The most productive batter for the St. Louis Cardinals is Paul Goldschmidt who averaged 2.27 hits+walks+RBI. He has a 39% chance of having a big game with 3+ Hits, Walks, RBI and if he has a big game the Cardinals have a 65% chance of winning.