Toronto Blue Jays vs

Boston Red Sox Prediction

The Boston Red Sox are 28-19 at home this season and are solid favorites to beat the Toronto Blue Jays who are 25-23 on the road this season. The Red Sox have a better than 55% chance of winning based on 10,000 game simulations generated one play at a time by the AccuScore Simulation Supercomputer. Red Sox' starter Nick Pivetta is forecasted to have a better game than Blue Jays' starter Thomas Hatch. Nick Pivetta has a 37% chance of having a Quality Start (QS) while Thomas Hatch has a 29% chance of a QS. If Nick Pivetta has a quality start the Red Sox has a 79% chance of winning. His simulated strikeout to walk ratio is 3.4 and he has a 23% chance of having a 5 to 1 K/BB ratio. When he has a 5/1 ratio the Red Sox win 55%. In Thomas Hatch quality starts the Blue Jays win 70%. He has a 26% chance of having a 5 to 1 K/BB ratio and if he does his team wins 70% of simulations. In simulations we tracked the batter for each team that was most productive based his average hits, walks and RBI per simulation. The most productive batter for the Boston Red Sox is Rafael Devers who averaged 2.57 hits+walks+RBI. He has a 43% chance of having a big game with 3+ Hits, Walks, RBI and if he has a big game the Red Sox have a 67% chance of winning. The most productive batter for the Toronto Blue Jays is Vladimir Guerrero Jr. who averaged 2.62 hits+walks+RBI. He has a 47% chance of having a big game with 3+ Hits, Walks, RBI and if he has a big game the Blue Jays have a 56% chance of winning.