Toronto Blue Jays vsBoston Red Sox Prediction
The Boston Red Sox are 5-5 at home this season and are solid favorites to beat the Toronto Blue Jays who are 3-7 on the road this season. The Red Sox have a better than 55% chance of winning based on 10,000 game simulations generated one play at a time by the AccuScore Simulation Supercomputer. Red Sox' starter Garrett Richards is forecasted to have a better game than Blue Jays' starter Trent Thornton. Garrett Richards has a 33% chance of having a Quality Start (QS) while Trent Thornton has a 26% chance of a QS. If Garrett Richards has a quality start the Red Sox has a 83% chance of winning. His simulated strikeout to walk ratio is 3 and he has a 20% chance of having a 5 to 1 K/BB ratio. When he has a 5/1 ratio the Red Sox win 68%. In Trent Thornton quality starts the Blue Jays win 68%. He has a 27% chance of having a 5 to 1 K/BB ratio and if he does his team wins 68% of simulations. In simulations we tracked the batter for each team that was most productive based his average hits, walks and RBI per simulation. The most productive batter for the Boston Red Sox is J.D. Martinez who averaged 3.06 hits+walks+RBI. He has a 56% chance of having a big game with 3+ Hits, Walks, RBI and if he has a big game the Red Sox have a 72% chance of winning. The most productive batter for the Toronto Blue Jays is Vladimir Guerrero Jr. who averaged 2.78 hits+walks+RBI. He has a 49% chance of having a big game with 3+ Hits, Walks, RBI and if he has a big game the Blue Jays have a 46% chance of winning.