New York Yankees vsBoston Red Sox Prediction
The Boston Red Sox are 49-29 at home this season and the New York Yankees are 41-33 on the road this season. This is a close match-up with both teams having a 45 to 55 percent chance of winning based on 10,000 game simulations generated one play at a time by the AccuScore Simulation Supercomputer. Both starters have a relatively low chance of having a quality start. Nick Pivetta has a 38% chance of a QS and Nestor Cortes Jr. a 38% chance. If Nick Pivetta has a quality start the Red Sox has a 76% chance of winning. His simulated strikeout to walk ratio is 2.7 and he has a 13% chance of having a 5 to 1 K/BB ratio. When he has a 5/1 ratio the Red Sox win 54%. If Nestor Cortes Jr. has a quality start the Yankees has a 70% chance of winning. His simulated strikeout to walk ratio is 4.3 and he has a 32% chance of having a 5 to 1 K/BB ratio. When he has a 5/1 ratio the Yankees win 49%. In simulations we tracked the batter for each team that was most productive based his average hits, walks and RBI per simulation. The most productive batter for the Boston Red Sox is Rafael Devers who averaged 2.44 hits+walks+RBI. He has a 41% chance of having a big game with 3+ Hits, Walks, RBI and if he has a big game the Red Sox have a 65% chance of winning. The most productive batter for the New York Yankees is Aaron Judge who averaged 2.43 hits+walks+RBI. He has a 42% chance of having a big game with 3+ Hits, Walks, RBI and if he has a big game the Yankees have a 59% chance of winning.