Houston Astros vsBoston Red Sox Prediction
The Houston Astros are 14-9 on the road this season and are heavy favorites to beat the Boston Red Sox who are 5-9 at home. The Astros have a better than 55% chance of winning based on 10,000 game simulations generated one play at a time by the AccuScore Simulation Supercomputer. Astros' starter Luis Garcia is forecasted to have a better game than Red Sox' starter Nick Pivetta. Luis Garcia has a 49% chance of having a Quality Start (QS) while Nick Pivetta has a 36% chance of a QS. If Luis Garcia has a quality start the Astros has a 80% chance of winning. His simulated strikeout to walk ratio is 3.1 and he has a 23% chance of having a 5 to 1 K/BB ratio. When he has a 5/1 ratio the Astros win 65%. In Nick Pivetta quality starts the Red Sox win 65%. He has a 10% chance of having a 5 to 1 K/BB ratio and if he does his team wins 65% of simulations. In simulations we tracked the batter for each team that was most productive based his average hits, walks and RBI per simulation. The most productive batter for the Boston Red Sox is Xander Bogaerts who averaged 2.55 hits+walks+RBI. He has a 45% chance of having a big game with 3+ Hits, Walks, RBI and if he has a big game the Red Sox have a 51% chance of winning. The most productive batter for the Houston Astros is Yordan Alvarez who averaged 2.65 hits+walks+RBI. He has a 46% chance of having a big game with 3+ Hits, Walks, RBI and if he has a big game the Astros have a 76% chance of winning.