Boston Red Sox vs

Baltimore Orioles Prediction

Boston Red Sox vs Baltimore Orioles Prediction

As owners of the best record in baseball, the Boston Red Sox will try to complete a four-game sweep of the Baltimore Orioles on Monday night. On the road, the Red Sox are favored with a -140 moneyline to win their fifth straight game and move 10 games over .500. Meanwhile, Baltimore’s moneyline at home is +120 as the Orioles try to end a three-game skid and start crawling out of last place in the AL East.

Baltimore Orioles Preview

The Orioles had actually been trending in the right direction in late April and early May. Before the Red Sox came to town, the Orioles had won five of their last seven games, winning back-to-back road series against the A’s and Mariners. However, they’ve been outscored 21-11 over the first three games of their series against Boston, dropping them four games under .500.

It might be tough for Baltimore to stop its losing skid with Jorge Lopez getting the start on Monday. Lopez is just 1-3 with a 6.49 ERA over his first six starts of 2021. He’s managed to complete five innings of work in just one of his six starts this season. On the bright side, Lopez has allowed two runs or less in three of his last four starts, so things are trending in the right direction. However, his inability to go deep into games is a concern, even if the Orioles have one of the better bullpens in the American League.

Baltimore’s other big problem is they’ve scored the second-fewest runs in the American League and have the AL’s third-worst OPS. Cedric Mullins has emerged as a potential star and Freddy Galvis has put together a nice season, but the Orioles have otherwise struggled offensively. Trey Mancini has hit six home runs, although his .733 OPS isn’t enough given his track record. Mullins has also started to slow down in recent days while Maikel Franco is ice-cold at the moment, depriving the Orioles of a couple of the players in their lineup who would be capable of doing some damage.

Boston Red Sox Preview

The Red Sox couldn’t have mapped out the early part of the season any better than  how things have unfolded, at least outside of getting swept by the Orioles to begin the season. After starting 0-3, the Red Sox have been the best team in baseball. Boston has now won five of six games and can become the first team in the majors to go 10 games over .500 with a win on Monday night.

Of course, to do that, the Red Sox may need Martin Perez to get his first win of the season. The lefty is 0-2 with a 4.40 ERA over his first six starts of 2021. He’s been the weak link of Boston’s rotation thus far, although the Red Sox are still 3-3 in his starts. Perez has also started to come around over his last two starts, giving up just three earned runs over his last 11.1 innings, striking out 13 and yielding 11 hits during that stretch. It’s tough to ask for much more than that out of a back-end starter.

That’s particularly the case with the Red Sox leading the majors in runs scored, batting average, and OPS. Xander Bogaerts and J.D. Martinez are both performing at a level that could put them in the MVP conversation later in the season. Outfielder Alex Verdugo isn’t far behind, batting .306 with an OPS of .838. Rafael Devers has also been key, contributing eight home runs and an OPS of .951. Even supporting players like Marwin Gonzalez and Hunter Renfroe have started to heat up in recent days, contributing to the team’s current four-game winning streak.

Full Game Prediction

Not surprisingly, the BetQL model is leaning toward the Red Sox to win on Monday and complete the sweep of the Orioles. In a lot of respects, if Perez just delivers a halfway decent outing, the Red Sox should have little trouble scoring enough runs against one of Baltimore’s worst starters to win the game. This game could also come down to Baltimore’s lack of speed. The Orioles average less than half a stolen base per game, and the Red Sox are 11-1 against teams that fit that description. The BetQL trends also tell us that Boston is 20-10 against teams that are striking out at least seven times per game this season, which also describes the Orioles. Those are just some of the trends that point to the Red Sox knocking off the Orioles on the road on Monday night.