SEV
Sevilla FC
Sat 10/31, 3:00 PM
ATH
Athletic Bilbao
SEV +166 O/U 2
ATL
Atletico Madrid
Sat 10/31, 5:30 PM
OSA
Osasuna
ATL -125 O/U 2
BAR
Barcelona
Sat 10/31, 8:00 PM
ALV
Alavés
BAR -202 O/U 3
RSO
Real Sociedad
Sun 11/1, 3:00 PM
CEL
Celta Vigo
RSO +144 O/U 2 & 2.5
LEV
Levante
Sun 11/1, 5:30 PM
GCF
Granada
LEV +240 O/U 2 & 2.5
GET
Getafe
Sun 11/1, 8:00 PM
VAL
Valencia
GET +149 O/U 2
VALL
Real Valladolid
Mon 11/2, 8:00 PM
VILL
Villarreal
VILL -169 O/U 2.5

Use BetQL To Determine La Liga Best Bets

Our model lists best bets for every La Liga match

Dan Farrimond, Flickr

What Are Best Bets?

Our proprietary models assign a 1-5 star rating to every spread, moneyline and over/under bet. Our best bets are determined by the difference between our projection and the consensus odds.

Five-star bets are the most valuable bets, followed by four-star bets and so on. The goal of the star ratings model is to make betting as straightforward as possible. The 5-star bets are the best bets because our model indicates a significantly different outcome relative to the current sportsbook line. Conversely, 1-star bets indicate a projected line that is very similar to the sportsbook line — typically a losing proposition for a bettor in the long run.

Villarreal-Celta Vigo Best Bet

As seen above, Villarreal's +103 moneyline was listed as a four-star bet in our model when they took on Celta Vigo on Saturday, June 13th. The reason for that was because our model listed Villarreal at +103 to win the match, a 98-point difference from the consensus. Our model's simulation gave Villarreal a 1.7-1.2 goal advantage. The result: a 1-0 Villarreal victory (and a win for our model).

Get access to La Liga Matchday 29 best bets now!

How Best Bets Are Identified 

Our model projects team performance and takes into account player performance, matchups, weather and injuries. From there, we set our own line, compare it with Vegas and assign a star rating to each spread, moneyline and over/under bet.

The team ratings use a strategic combination of historical team results, the current matchup (including anticipated starters) and the projected outcome. Team ratings are dynamic and will update based on major player injury news. The team’s offensive rating is the core piece and carries the most weight. The defensive rating as well as home field advantage are each significant factors. Other factors (weather, injuries, narratives, etc.) are taken into consideration and applied where appropriate. 

Why Our Best Bets Change

 There are a number of factors that could alter a star rating. Speculation around injuries, weather, narratives, etc. oftentimes move the line throughout the day/week leading up to a game and, since our evaluation of the matchup is relative to the sportsbook, will impact the star rating. Keep in mind that movement often revolves around the sportsbook looking to hedge against significant loss. Fortunately, our model is deaf to the noise, so you get consistent winners.  

Why Accessing Our Best Bets Matters 

Generally speaking, 3-star bets (and better) are recommended for the average user. A more aggressive bettor can bet 2-star games, while a more conservative bettor should stick to 4 and 5-star bets. Additionally, you are able to scale the wager based on star rating. For example, if you are aggressively betting all bets rated 2-stars and above, we recommend that you bet a larger percentage of your bankroll on a 5-star bet than a 2-star bet.