2022 RSM Classic Best Bets

The PGA Tour rolls on to Sea Island Golf Club in Georgia for this week’s event, as some of the top golfers in the world compete for their share of the $8.1 million purse. Last week, we correctly predicted Tony Finau to win the Houston Open (+1800) along with Jason Day’s Top 20 finish (+155) and Justin Rose’s Top 40 finish (+125). In previous weeks, the model nailed Russell Henley’s Top 10 Finish (+550) when he won the World Wide Technology Championship at Mayakoba and Seamus Power’s Top 5 Finish (+500) hit when he won the Bermuda Championship, so we are primed to identify some more valuable edges this week!

Our predictive model takes into account overall player performance, recent form, course strengths and weaknesses per player and sportsbook odds. It has been developed and tested throughout previous PGA seasons and has compiled historical data from 25+ years of golfer and course history. Note: odds presented below were shopped among our sportsbook partners to identify the best values. Content is free for a limited time. All statistics below were found on PGATour.com. Star ratings are on 1-5 scale (1 being least valuable, 5 being most valuable).

Webb Simpson To Win (+5000, BetMGM)

BetQL Projection: +1127 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

Per Mark Fox of the Plugged Lie, nobody in this field has gained more strokes (+1.93) at the RSM Classic than Simpson since 2017 (with a minimum of eight rounds). In 10 career appearances at the Sea Island Golf Club, Simpson has made the cut all 10 times with two 2nd-place finishes, a 3rd-place finish and three more Top 15 finishes. A whopping 35 of his 38 rounds here have been in the red, which is the type of consistency we are looking for! Simpson has 50/1 odds to win the event, a bargain since BetQL’s PGA Model is giving him almost 11/1 odds.

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Harris English Top 5 Finish (+1100, FanDuel)

BetQL Projection: +475 ⭐⭐⭐⭐

English had a T6 finish here back in 2020, including a final round 62, which flashed his upside. A native of the state of Georgia, English should be familiar with this course and navigating the terrain at this time of the year, something that could give him a leg up against the competition. BetQL is giving him +475 odds to finish in the Top 5, which makes the +1100 odds you can get at FanDuel a nice discount right now.

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Chris Kirk Top 10 Finish (+550, DraftKings)

BetQL Projection: +287 ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Kirk is a former Georgia Bulldogs standout and finished T18 here in 2020, T4 in 2017, T18 in 2015 and won in 2014 as his best finishes at the event. Our model is giving Kirk +287 odds to log a Top 10 finish this week, which makes his +550 odds at DraftKings a solid value. Per PGATour.com, Kirk used to be a resident of Sea Island, so that factor should give him an edge once again this week.

Brendon Todd Top 20 Finish (+275, DraftKings)

BetQL Projection: +160 ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Oh, look, another former Georgia Bulldogs star! Todd is off to a hot start to the 2022-2023 season with a T7 finish at The CJ Cup in South Carolina and a T9 finish and back in 2019, he finished solo 4th here. According to Golf Digest, Todd has been one of the best putters in the field on Bermudagrass, gaining 0.65 strikes per round over 137 rounds since 2019. (That’s the 2nd-best mark on that surface over that span.) Per BetQL, he has +160 odds to finish in the Top 20 compared to +275 odds you can get at DraftKings.

Sepp Straka Top 40 Finish (+155, FanDuel)

BetQL Projection: -167 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

Straka started off the new season well, logging a 2nd-place playoff finish at the Sanderson Farms Championship and even though he’s coming off consecutive missed cuts, he’s ranked 28th in the Official World Golf Rankings (3rd-highest in the field), is another UGA alum and last season, he recorded six different Top 10 finishes, including a win at The Honda Classic. We’re projecting him to finish in the Top 40 (-167 odds), which makes his +155 odds at FanDuel a priority bet this week. This is one of my favorite bets of the early PGA season so far.

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