RBC Heritage Best Bets, Sleepers & Model Picks

BetQL identified the following values for this week’s event at Harbour Town Golf Links

Harbour Town Golf Links at Hilton Head Island, South Carolina will be the setting for this week’s RBC Heritage as 132 players will fight for their share of the $8 million purse. The winner will get a cool $1.44 M and 500 FedExCup points. Last year, veteran Stewart Cink won the event for the third time, carding two different rounds of 63 strokes on Thursday and Friday en route to the win. Per the RBC Heritage tournament magazine, this Par-71 course will play to 7,121 yards and is known for its small, undulating greens and tree-lined fairways, thus awarding the most accurate golfers. In fact, only Pebble Beach has smaller putting surfaces than Harbour Town. Last year, Cink tied for first in both Greens In Regulation (56 of 72) and ranked second in SG: Approach-The-Green. Keep that in mind. Without further ado, let’s get into this week’s top values. 

Our predictive model takes into account overall player performance, recent form, course strengths and weaknesses per player and sportsbook odds. It has been developed and tested throughout previous PGA seasons and has compiled historical data from 25+ years of golfer and course history. Note: odds presented below were shopped among our sportsbook partners to identify the best values. Content is free for a limited time. All statistics below were found on PGATour.com. Star ratings are on 1-5 scale (1 being least valuable, 5 being most valuable).

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Justin Thomas To Win (+1300, PointsBet)

BetQL Projection & Value Rating: +449 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

When Cink won last year, he ranked 1st in SG: Tee-To-Green, T1 in GIR, T1 in Bogey Avoidance, T1 in Par-3 Scoring and 2nd in SG: Approach-The-Green. It just so happens that Thomas ranks 1st in this field in SG: Tee-To-Green, 17th on Tour in GIR, 2nd on Tour in Bogey Avoidance, T11 on Tour in Par-3 Scoring and 5th in SG: Approach-The-Green. Thomas also owns the 2nd-best Scoring Average (69.648) and is a smart pick to win each and every time he steps on the course. He finished 8th at this tournament in 2020 (didn’t play here last year) and it’s tough to find someone as consistent as Thomas right now (except Scottie Scheffler). He finished 8th at the Masters Tournament and also posted the following finishes this season: 3rd at the Valspar Championship, 3rd at the World Wide Technology Championship at Mayakoba, 5th at the Hero World Challenge, 5th at the Sentry Tournament of Champions, 6th at The Genesis Invitational and 8th at WM Phoenix Open. 

Thomas is the fourth golfer since 1960 to win 14 times on the PGA Tour before turning 28 years old and he’s the best bet to win it all this week, as someone who can get crafty with his irons, short game and putter as an all-around talent. Our model is giving him +449 odds to win, a stark difference from the +1300 odds you can find at PointsBet. Therefore, this is a 5-star, max value bet!

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Patrick Cantlay Top 5 Finish (+450, FanDuel)

BetQL Projection & Value Rating: +176 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

A disastrous 3rd Round 79 kept Cantlay from posting a solid score at the Masters, where he finished 39th over the weekend. That followed up a MC at THE PLAYERS Championship and a 33rd finish at The Genesis Invitational. Therefore, Cantlay isn’t in the best form right now after getting off to a torrid start to 2022 that saw him finish 4th at the Sentry Tournament of Champions, 9th at The American Express, 4th at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am and 2nd (playoff) at the WM Phoenix Open. However, if there was a rebound spot for him, this seems like a logical choice. Cantlay ranks 5th on Tour in Birdie Average (4.77) and attacks greens with aggression, as he ranks 1st in Going For The Green (in 67 of 79 eligible attempts). Ranking 10th in Scrambling and 17th in SG: Around-The-Green, Cantlay also ranks 4th in Total Putting, all of which works in his favor at Harbour Town. We’re giving Cantlay +176 odds to finish in the Top 5 while FanDuel is giving him +450 odds. Take advantage now!

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Dustin Johnson Top 10 Finish (+210, FanDuel)

BetQL Projection & Value Rating: +105 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

Is DJ back? It feels like it. After taking some time off last year and getting back into the swing of things in early 2022, Johnson recently finished 9th at THE PLAYERS Championship and 12th at the Masters last week. As seen back in 2019 when he was in the final grouping on Sunday, his game suits this course very well, as he’s been one of the best golfers on Tour with his irons over the years. He enters this event ranked 13th in Total Driving Efficiency, 13th in Birdie Average, 16th in Overall Putting Average and 20th in SG: Off-The-Tee. If he cleans up his play around the green (where he’s been below average this year), he should be in contention on Sunday this week. FanDuel has him at +210 to finish in the Top 10, but BetQL’s PGA Model is giving him +105 odds. 

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Sungjae Im Top 20 Finish (+175, FanDuel)

BetQL Projection & Value Rating: -109 ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Im ranks 9th in SG: Tee-To-Green, 4th in Par-4 Scoring and 4th in Scrambling in this field, all of which make him an obvious course fit. He should also have a nice bit of momentum on his side, after finishing 8th at the Masters this past week. A $450,000 pay day should give him some swagger, right? Im ranks 13th in SG: Total which sums up how complete his game is and this certainly seems like a week that we should be able to cash in on it. We are projecting him to finish inside the Top 20, as indicated by our model’s -109 odds. You can get +175 odds on him to do that on FanDuel right now.

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Tyrrell Hatton Top 30 Finish (+115, FanDuel)

BetQL Projection & Value Rating: -173 ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Hatton had a solid start to the Masters and made the cut after going 72-74 in the first two rounds, but then fell off the map after a 79-80 weekend that made the elite putter very frustrated. Nonetheless, his previous four PGA Tour events this season went like this: 21st at the Valspar Championship, 13th at THE PLAYERS Championship, 2nd at the Arnold Palmer Invitational and 9th at the Hero World Challenge. Despite Augusta’s greens giving him some trouble, he still ranks 1st in SG: Putting and should be in a much better spot on lucious Bermuda greens this week that will roll normally (even on a smaller surface area). He ranks 8th on Tour in SG: Total and has been consistently overlooked and/or disrespected by sportsbooks everywhere all year long. FanDuel is listing him at +115 to finish in the Top 30, continuing that trend. We have him at -173 and clearly value him as the solid golfer he is.

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Denny McCarthy Top 40 Finish (+130, DraftKings)

BetQL Projection & Value Rating: -202 ⭐⭐⭐⭐

McCarthy ranks 11th in this field in Scrambling, an important metric this week. He finished 18th at the Valero Texas Open last time out and, like Hatton, can make a difference on the green, where he ranks 14th on Tour in SG: Putting. Keep in mind that the Top 50 (plus ties) out of the 132-man field will make the cut, so if he makes it to the weekend, this Top 40 finish should easily be in reach. Despite all of that, DraftKings is listing him at +130 to finish in the Top 40, a major difference from our model’s -202 projection.

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