NASCAR Pick Sheet: Hollywood Casino 400

NASCAR Pick Sheet: Hollywood Casino 400

There are more questions than answers after Round 1, Race 1 of the 2022 NASCAR playoffs. 

We reached the final 10 races with 16 unique winners because the design of the NextGen car has leveled the playing field to an unprecedented level. In stock car racing, there have always been two components: driver skill and car strength. The balance between the two is in constant flux, but the NextGen car has made it unclear where to find that dividing line. 

The turmoil that brought us 16 drivers in the first 26 races, provided a 17th winner in last week’s Southern 500 at Darlington Raceway. Our prediction that this will be a season in which non-playoff contenders win a record number of races is looking pretty good. This is also a good time to point out that while Erik Jones was a shock to the field, we had him ranked sixth in last week’s Pick Sheet.

Now the series rolls into Kansas Speedway. The similarly-configured, 1.5-mile tracks have long been among the most predictable on the circuit, but that started to change in the past couple of seasons as dark horses put the lion’s share of their effort into this style of racing. 

NASCAR Odds, Picks For Hollywood Casino 400

1. Kyle Busch ⭐⭐⭐

DraftKings: Outright Win +600 | -130 top-five

Consensus Odds*: +596 | Best Odds: PointsBet +625

Last week featured a huge swing of emotions for Busch. In the blink of an eye, he went from being an almost-certain winner of the first playoff race, which would have locked him into the Round of 12, to falling to the 11th spot – barely above the cutline for advancement. The good news is that Kansas has been a great place for him in recent years with a win and four top-fives in his last six races there. 

2. Denny Hamlin ⭐⭐⭐⭐

DraftKings: Outright Win +550 | -145 top-five

Consensus Odds*: +547 | Best Odds: BetMGM +600

Hamlin avoided the trouble that befell his teammates Busch and Martin Truex, Jr. last week at Darlington. His engine held up till the checkered flag and he walked away with a second-place finish. That gives him a little wiggle room in the playoffs, but it’s unlikely he will need it because he has also been strong at Kansas with two wins and four top-fives in his last four starts there. 

3. Christopher Bell ⭐⭐⭐

DraftKings: Outright Win +1000 | +125 top-five

Consensus Odds*: +1008 | Best Odds: PointsBet +1200

Yes, we are predicting a sweep of the top three spots for Joe Gibbs Racing (JGR) with this caveat: they must eliminate mistakes. The inconsistency in this organization often comes down to an inability to execute either on pit road or in late-race restarts. Bell has the least experience and is in greater danger as a result, but with three results of eighth or better in the last four races this season and a fifth this spring at Kansas, he has a huge upside. 

4. Kyle Larson ⭐⭐⭐⭐

DraftKings: Outright Win +800 | +100 top-five

Consensus Odds*: +738 | Best Odds: PointsBet, BetMGM +1200

With odds ranging from +650 at BetRivers to +1200 at PointsBet and MGM, it’s safe to say that the traders are not sure what to do with Larson this week. That’s understandable for the defending champion who does not seem to be in form to defend the Cup, but we really didn’t get a chance to see what he would look like last week since he experienced an odd engine issue in Stage 1. He rebounded. He’s still in contention. But the analysis about his title odds begins this week. 

5. Kevin Harvick ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

DraftKings: Outright Win +1600 | +200 top-five

Consensus Odds*: +1550 | Best Odds: DraftKings, PointsBet, BetRivers +1600

We’ve been wrong about Harvick on a few occasions this year, but it’s time to go out on a limb once more and predict that he will challenge for the win. There are few drivers better when their backs are against the wall and after last week’s dramatic fire that dropped Harvick to 16th in the playoff ranking, he’s starting to think in terms of a “must-win” once more. He stumbled in this spring’s AdventHealth 400, but had four consecutive Kansas top-fives preceding that.  

6. Martin Truex, Jr. ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

DraftKings: Outright Win +700 | -115 top-five

Consensus Odds*: +767 | Best Odds: BetMGM +900

We could have put Truex in the top five this week and our algorithm gives him five stars. Based on his overall performance, that would have been justified, but NASCAR races are not won by statistics. Truex’s X-factor is his bad luck and poor execution. When he runs well, the crew makes a mistake, he gets a bad restart, or in rare situations like last week, the engine lets go. It has kept him from being part of the Championship 16 and it’s beginning to look like it will send him home winless in 2022. He’s good for a Kansas top-10, however, because he has 10 of those in his last 11 attempts. 

7. Tyler Reddick ⭐⭐⭐

DraftKings: Outright Win +1200 | +150 top-five

Consensus Odds*: +1150 | Best Odds: DraftKings, PointsBet, FanDuel +1200

A good handicapper needs to admit to biases and let you decide if their assessment is correct. This week’s seventh-place ranking has a lot to do with last week’s third-place finish at Darlington because it changed the course of Reddick’s playoffs. With trouble for several of the favorites and his strong run, he is in a much more comfortable position, (fifth in the standings at +23 to the bubble), with two races remaining in the Round of 16. He’s been strong on "cookie-cutter" courses with seven top-10s in his last nine starts, but he has not cracked the top five since finishing second at Homestead-Miami Speedway last year. 

8. Chase Elliott ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

DraftKings: Outright Win +750 | -110 top-five

Consensus Odds*: +783 | Best Odds: BetMGM +900

Last week was a wakeup call for Elliott. He pressed too hard and spun. He hit the wall, but probably would have gotten away with minimal damage if not for contact from Chase Briscoe that ended his day. Elliott also had problems this spring at Kansas with low air pressure in the new low-profile tire of the NextGen car. Look for the No. 9 team to detune a little and aim for a solid top-10. Wait a few weeks before wagering on him for an outright win. 

9. Joey Logano ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

DraftKings: Outright Win +2000 | +275 top-five

Consensus Odds*: +1717 | Best Odds: DraftKings, FanDuel +2000

Logano did not take the trophy home from Darlington, but he was the biggest winner. His fourth-place finish and solid results in the stages gives him a 38-point advantage over the cutline heading to a track on which he has three wins – the most recent of which came in 2020. He will need the momentum last week’s top-five provides, however, because he has only two top-10s in his last 12 "cookie-cutter" races.

10. Alex Bowman ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

DraftKings: Outright Win +3500 | +425 top-five

Consensus Odds*: +2917 | Best Odds: DraftKings +3500

Along with Larson, Busch, and Bell, Bowman is one of four drivers who have swept the top 10 in three "cookie-cutter" races this year. What makes him most interesting this week is his victory in the Pennzoil 400 at Las Vegas Motor Speedway. His Kansas result of ninth and a 10th in the Coke 600 at Charlotte Motor Speedway are more representative of what we expect.

 *Consensus odds at the average of six sportsbooks: DraftKings, PointsBet, MCM, FanDuel, and BetRivers