2023 Wells Fargo Championship Best Bets & Sleeper Picks

2023 Wells Fargo Championship Best Bets

The Wells Fargo Championship is a professional golf tournament on the PGA Tour that has been held annually since 2003. It's played at Quail Hollow Club in Charlotte, North Carolina and features a field of 156 players, including some of the top-ranked players in the world. The winner will earn $3.6 million of the $20 million purse in the 2023 edition.

After hosting the 2022 Presidents Cup and 2017 PGA Championship, Quail Hollow has gotten recognition as one of the most challenging courses on Tour and the Par 71 will measure at 7,538 yards this week. Per PGA.com, the last three times Quail Hollow has hosted this event, it’s ranked inside the top eight most-difficult courses on Tour. Max Homa won the 2022 Wells Fargo Championship, but Rory McIlroy won the event the last time it was played at Quail Hollow in 2021. That was his third time winning the event and he’s in the field again this week. Below, you’ll see our model’s best bets accompanied by data and star ratings for each. 

BetQL’s predictive PGA model takes into account overall player performance, recent form, course strengths and weaknesses per player and sportsbook odds. It has been developed and tested throughout previous seasons and has compiled historical data from 25+ years of golfer and course history. Note: odds presented below were shopped among our sportsbook partners to identify the best values. Content is free for a limited time. All statistics below were found on PGATour.com. Star ratings are on 1-5 scale (1 being least valuable, 5 being most valuable).

Rory McIlroy To Win (+750, BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐

As mentioned above, Rory McIlroy won this event the last time it was played at Quail Hollow (2021) and was victorious two other times (2010, 2015). As a result, our model is giving him the best chance to win again this week. In 10 appearances, he’s finished in the Top 20 nine different times. After missing the cut twice in a row in his last two events, this tournament should give him the best opportunity possible to rebound in a big way. He earned his first PGA Tour victory on this course as a 20 year old back in 2010 after shooting a 62 in the final round. He then set the course record with a 61 in his 2015 win as well as the four-round scoring record that year. He’s shot 66 or better nine times here, has been the longest hitter off the tee and ranks 1st in this field in SG: Tee to Green (2nd on Tour). 

McIlroy is widely regarded as one of the best golfers of his generation and has been consistently ranked among the top players in the world for over a decade. Known for his ability to hit the ball incredibly long distances, Rory attacks courses aggressively and can reach greens in fewer shots than the rest of the field. After soaking rains in North Carolina recently, his ability to smash the ball down fairways could give him an edge over the field since balls will presumably not roll or bounce as much as usual. While he is known for his length off the tee, McIlroy is also a very accurate player, particularly with his irons. He is able to hit approach shots consistently close to the hole, setting up birdie opportunities. 

Don't forget about his strong short game. With excellent touch and feel around the greens, he's able to get up and down from difficult positions and is a skilled putter. Overall, McIlroy's combination of power, accuracy, short game skill, mental toughness, and athleticism make him the best bet to win this week. BetMGM’s +750 odds are the longest you can find, so take advantage now.

Xander Schauffele Top 5 Finish (+500, BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Xander Schauffele ranks 5th in the Official World Golf Ranking and finished T19, T10, 4th and T4 over his last four PGA Tour starts this season. BetQL’s PGA Model is giving him +321 odds to finish in the Top 5 this week, thus making the +500 odds you can get at BetMGM a nice bargain. Ranking 6th in this field in SG: Tee To Green (9th on Tour), Schauffele’s well-rounded game should put him in contention yet again, especially when factoring in his current form. 

Schauffele is a very consistent player and always has been, with a solid all-around game that allows him to avoid big mistakes and stay in contention in tournaments. He ranks highly in both driving accuracy and greens in regulation, which are important indicators of consistency. A skilled shot-maker, Schauffele is able to shape his shots and hit a variety of different shots depending on the situation. Like McIlroy, this allows him to attack courses creatively and adapt to changing conditions. Given the recent rain, this ability to think on the fly could come in handy as the course could change from round to round. As one of the most cerebral golfers on Tour, he plays to his strengths and avoids unnecessary risks. That should help him again this week.

Justin Thomas Top 10 Finish (+260, Bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

BetQL is giving Justin Thomas +152 odds to finish in the Top 10, which make his +260 odds at Bet365 an amazing value. While it came in August, his 2017 PGA Championship win on this course should be considered and Quail Hollow rewards guys that can hit every club in their bag. Thomas is regarded as one of the best shot-makers in the sport and doesn’t have a major weakness to point to. While his inability to win tournaments lately might end up limiting his individual potential, we just need a Top 10 finish.

Ranking 5th in this field (8th on Tour) in SG: Tee to Green, Thomas should be considered a contender this week and is our model’s only 5-star value bet.

2023 Wells Fargo Championship Sleeper Picks

Tyrrell Hatton Top 20 Finish (+190, Bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

BetQL is giving Tyrrell Hatton +149 odds to finish in the Top 20, which makes his +190 odds at Bet365 a solid value this week. Regarded as one of the best iron players and putters in the world, Hatton is always a solid option to perform and this week is no exception. Ranking as one of the best putters over the last few seasons, Hatton should be in store for an awesome week on the slow post-rain greens here. Per PGATour.com, the last three event winners have finished first, second or third in SG: Putting since these greens are typically very difficult to read. (In 2021, they ranked in the top five in terms of three-putts.) Hatton also ranks 9th in the field in SG: Tee To Green (12th on Tour). 

Hatton is an excellent iron player and is known for his ability to hit approach shots consistently close to the hole. In fact, he ranks 1st on Tour in Approaches From 225-250 Yards and 2nd on Tour in Approaches From 250-275 Yards. When betting on someone to finish in the Top 20, it’s important to target someone who consistently performs in multiple essential areas and he does exactly that with his irons and putter. Coming off a T19 at the RBC Heritage, Hatton has also logged some really high finishes over the last couple months, including a 2nd place finish at THE PLAYERS, a T4 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational and a T6 at the WM Phoenix Open.

Taylor Montgomery Top 40 Finish (+155, FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

You can get +155 odds for this outcome at FanDuel right now, but BetQL’s PGA Model is giving Taylor Montgomery -108 odds to log a Top 40 finish. He ranks 2nd in this field in SG: Putting (3rd on Tour) and 4th in this field in Par 4 Scoring (5th on Tour). If you want an off-the-board play to win the tournament, consider Montgomery since the previous three winners at this event all ranked T4 or better in Par 4 Scoring. He also ranks 1st on the PGA Tour in Putting Average, Overall Putting Average, One-Putt Percentage and Putts Per Round.

He’s coming off a T19 at the Zurich Classic of New Orleans, has recorded three Top 40 finishes in his last five Tour events and has finished in the Top 40 of 12 of 17 PGA Tour events this season.