BetQL’s PGA Model dominated the 2022 Mexico Championship, correctly identifying Jon Rahm (+500) as the best bet to win and Tony Finau as the best bet to finish in the Top 5 (+600). Now, we set our sights on the Wells Fargo Championship at TPC Potomac at Avenel Farm. The picturesque Par-70, 7,139-yard Maryland course will award a $9M purse and 2021 champion Rory McIlroy headlines the field of 156 players. The winner will get a cool $1.62M and 500 FedExCup Points.
Per TPC.com, “Great care was taken to incorporate the distinct nuances and indigenous flora of the Mid-Atlantic topography into the course design, to create a compelling, strategically diverse and strikingly beautiful playing field for golfers of all skill levels. The course features Bentgrass greens, tees and fairways with subtle elevation changes and distinctive Mid-Atlantic and Scottish-style bunkering.” Further, PGATour.com notes, “With only 22 acres of fairway and tree lined fairways there's hardly any room to miss. Errant shots that aren't gobbled up by almost three inches of Kentucky Bluegrass/Tall Fescue will also have to avoid water penalty areas on 10 of the 18 holes and 80 bunkers.”
Our predictive model takes into account overall player performance, recent form, course strengths and weaknesses per player and sportsbook odds. It has been developed and tested throughout previous PGA seasons and has compiled historical data from 25+ years of golfer and course history. Note: odds presented below were shopped among our sportsbook partners to identify the best values. Content is free for a limited time. All statistics below were found on PGATour.com. Star ratings are on 1-5 scale (1 being least valuable, 5 being most valuable).
Rory McIlroy To Win (+850, BetMGM)
BetQL Model Projection: +609 ⭐⭐⭐⭐
McIlroy won the Wells Fargo Championship last year and also did in 2010 and 2015. He’s the only multiple-time winner at this event and is the clear favorite in front of guys like Corey Conners, Matt Fitzpatrick, Finau, Abraham Ancer, Gary Woodland and Russell Henley. After finishing 2nd at the Masters, McIlroy’s current form should give him confidence heading into this event.
"I've always known that I can do it," McIlroy said after his Masters finish, per ESPN. "I've played good enough around here, maybe just haven't strung four rounds together like that, but I've always known that I have the game to win at this place. It's just a matter of having that game for four days in a row and not making big numbers and shooting yourself in the foot, I guess. That was my attitude the first couple of days. I certainly didn't do that. I played for pars quite a lot, but in the course of a tournament, you are going to find some spots where you go on a birdie run, and you try to take advantage of some of the good golf that you play, and I did that today."
He will have every opportunity to pick his spots once again on this course. BetQL is giving McIlroy +609 odds to win, a clear value against the +850 odds you can get at BetMGM right now!
Webb Simpson Top 5 Finish (+1000, BetMGM)
BetQL Model Projection: +172 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
Simpson ranks 10th on Tour in Overall Putting Average and 26th in SG: Around-The-Green. BetQL is giving him +172 odds to finish in the Top 5, a gigantic value against the +1000 odds you can find at BetMGM right now. Last week, we accurately labeled Finau as the best Top 5 bet and you would have cashed in +600 odds if you tailed it. This offers even more upside!
Russell Henley Top 10 Finish (+333, BetMGM)
BetQL Model Projection: +180 ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Henley ranks 5th in this field in Greens In Regulation and has a number of solid finishes under his belt already this season: 21st, 25th, 7th, 22nd, 2nd, 14th, 13th, and 13th. Although he’s coming off of his first missed cut of the season at the RBC Heritage, Henley has +180 odds to finish in the Top 10 in our model compared to +333 odds at BetMGM. Henley ranks 1st on Tour in SG: Approach-The-Green, 5th in Scoring Average and 6th in SG: Tee-To-Green, so this is a quality player that you can get a discount on right now. This is personally my favorite bet of the week and I'm also going to sprinkle some on him to win the event.
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Patrick Reed Top 20 Finish (+210, FanDuel)
BetQL Model Projection: +108 ⭐⭐⭐⭐
After finishing 26th at THE PLAYERS Championship, 35th at The Masters and 42nd at the Mexico Open, it’s clear that Reed’s form isn’t great at the moment. With that being said, he posted rounds of 67 and 66 before struggling over the weekend in Mexico and has flashed some of the game we were used to seeing from him when he was in his prime. He still ranks 23rd in Tour in SG: Putting, so if he’s able to clean up the other aspects of his game and get on the green, he should be able to do some good things. BetQL is giving him +108 odds to finish in the Top 20 which is a value versus the +210 odds you can get on FanDuel.
Jason Day Top 30 Finish (+280, FanDuel)
BetQL Model Projection: -149 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
Yes, Day has missed three cuts in a row heading into this event. Let’s just get that out of the way first. His game is not in a good place overall right now. However, looking into the numbers, it’s hard not to at least consider him at +280 odds to finish in the Top 30. Day is still an elite putter; he ranks 16th in Putting Average. Plus, his aggressiveness could pay off on a course like this. He ranks 19th in Going For The Green - Birdie Or Better, 66% (33) on 50 qualifying shots. BetQL is projecting him to finish in the Top 30 and gives him -149 odds to do so.
Denny McCarthy Top 40 Finish (+130, DraftKings)
BetQL Model Projection: -203 ⭐⭐⭐⭐
McCarthy ranks 6th in this field in Bogey Avoidance and has made six consecutive cuts heading into this event. He has nine Top 40 finishes in 17 starts this season and our model is giving him -203 odds to earn that outcome this week. Considering that he’s at +130 at DraftKings, that’s a nice bargain to take advantage of!