The PGA Tour heads to Vidanta Vallarta for this week’s 2022 Mexico Championship and a $7.3M purse is on the line at this Par-71, 7,456-yard Greg Norman design. Per PGA.com, the course features wide fairways and landing areas off the tee and large greens, but players will need to be careful to avoid plenty of bunkers and water hazards that create threats. The Mexico Open dates all the way back to 1944 and it’s considered Mexico’s national championship, therefore a huge deal to the local audience. This is the first time the PGA Tour will recognize it as an official FedExCup event. Ten Mexican golfers will tee off at the event and World No. 3 Jon Rahm of Spain will headline the field as a massive betting favorite.
Our predictive model takes into account overall player performance, recent form, course strengths and weaknesses per player and sportsbook odds. It has been developed and tested throughout previous PGA seasons and has compiled historical data from 25+ years of golfer and course history. Note: odds presented below were shopped among our sportsbook partners to identify the best values. Content is free for a limited time. All statistics below were found on PGATour.com. Star ratings are on 1-5 scale (1 being least valuable, 5 being most valuable).
Surprise, surprise. As the best player in this field by a wide margin, Rahm is a large favorite to win the event at every sportsbook. Coming off a 27th place finish at the Masters and 55th place finish at THE PLAYERS Championship, Rahm is in a great spot to rebound and pick up his first win of the season. He ranks 1st on Tour in Strokes Gained: Off-The-Tee, 1st in GIR Percentage, 2nd in SG: Tee-To-Green, so if he can adequately perform with his putter, he should be able to perform ahead of the field in essentially every aspect of his game. Our model is giving him the best chance to win this tournament, which isn't much of a shock.
BetQL is giving Finau +301 odds to finish in the Top 5, thus making +600 a massive value. He ranks 8th in this field in SG: Tee-To-Green and his ability and urge to attack greens should give him a solid edge. In 115 qualifying attempts, he’s gone for the green 75.65% of the time (7th on Tour) and he also ranks 17th on Tour in SG: Approach-The-Green. If you want to get long odds that are also valuable, our model is listing him as the best bet this week.
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BetQL is giving Woodland +182 odds to finish in the Top 10 which indicates that his +270 odds at FanDuel are a discount. He ranks 7th in this field in SG: Tee-To-Green and has three top 10 finishes in his last six events: 5th at the Honda Classic, 5th at the Arnold Palmer Invitational and 8th at the Valero Texas Open. While he’s coming off a missed cut at the Masters, Woodland projects well for this course. He ranks 1st on Tour in Going For The Green - Green Hit Percentage (35.37%), as he’s hit 29 greens on 82 qualifying attempts. That aggression could pay off since Vidanta features large, hittable greens.
BetQL is projecting Tringale to finish in the Top 20, as indicated by his -107 odds in the model. That makes his +150 odds at FanDuel valuable. He ranks 5th in this field in Scoring Average and has had quite a roller coaster of a season, posting six Top 20 finishes (including four Top 10 finishes), but also five missed cuts. He ranks 19th on Tour in GIR Percentage and is seemingly in a good spot to produce this week in a less talented field than usual.
BetQL is projecting Kirk to easily finish in the Top 30 and gives him -185 odds to do so. Therefore, getting him at +100 on FanDuel makes a lot of sense. Kirk ranks 2nd in the field in SG: Tee-To-Green and also 2nd in Scoring Average and while he’s missed two of his last three cuts, he went on a stretch in February and March where he strung together 14th, 7th and 5th place finishes at the Phoenix Open, Honda Classic and Arnold Palmer Invitational.
This is BetQL’s 5-star value of the week! The model is giving Knox -308 odds to finish in the Top 40, a massive difference from DraftKings’ +110 odds. He ranks 4th in this field in Scoring Average and has finished in the Top 40 in four of his last eight events. However, in this watered-down field, our model is projecting him to easily accomplish that feat this week. Keep in mind that -308 projected odds equates to a 75.49% implied probability!