2022 Memorial Tournament Best Bets & Model Picks

Muirfield Village Golf Club is the setting for the 2022 Memorial Tournament. The Par-72, 7,533-yard course features Bentgrass greens, nightmarishly-high rough, water hazards on 13 holes and 68 bunkers. In all, 120 golfers will compete for a share of the $12 million purse, including a cool $2.16 million and 550 FedExCup points to the winner. Let’s take a look at this week’s best finishing position bets.

Our predictive model takes into account overall player performance, recent form, course strengths and weaknesses per player and sportsbook odds. It has been developed and tested throughout previous PGA seasons and has compiled historical data from 25+ years of golfer and course history. Last week, we nailed Sungjae Im’s Top 20 finish (+145) and Denny McCarthy’s Top 40 finish (+130) at the 2022 Charles Schwab Challenge. Note: odds presented below were shopped among our sportsbook partners to identify the best values. Content is free for a limited time. All statistics below were found on PGATour.com. Star ratings are on 1-5 scale (1 being least valuable, 5 being most valuable).

Jon Rahm To Win (+1000, PointsBet)

BetQL Projection: +451 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

It’s tough to ignore Rahm’s history at this event. The Spaniard won it in 2020 and then was a tournament-record -18 through three rounds last year, but then tested positive for COVID-19 and was forced to withdraw with a six-stroke lead. It was a brutal and iconic moment in the world of golf. It was obvious that he had a chip on his shoulder because he returned and immediately won the U.S. Open two weeks later. Take a look at his 54-hole highlights to see how dominant he was:

Regardless of the year-to-year course changes at this event, Rahm is clearly comfortable at Muirfield. The last three winners of this event have finished 1st or 2nd in Strokes Gained: Tee-To-Green and Rahm ranks 2nd in this field in that metric. Rahm also ranks 1st on Tour in SG: Off-The-Tee and 1st in Greens In Regulation Percentage as well. BetQL is giving him +451 odds to win this week, a discount against the +1000 odds you can find on PointsBet right now. Bet it risk-free!

Patrick Cantlay Top 5 Finish (+350, FanDuel)

BetQL Projection: +174 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

Speaking of guys who enjoy this course, Cantlay won this event in 2019 and 2021. BetQL’s PGA Model is giving him +174 odds to finish in the Top 5 this week, a nice bargain vs. FanDuel’s +350 odds. What stands out about Cantlay is his aggressive tendency on approach shots. In fact, he ranks 2nd in Tour in Going For The Green (79 attempts and 20 non-attempts in 99 qualifying approach shots) this season and 4th in Birdie Average as a result.

Not only that, but he has a special connection with Jack Nicklaus, who hosts this tournament. “It's always special coming off the 18th green and shaking his hand. We have a great connection and we are, I would say, good friends at this point, and so that makes it just a little more special,” Cantlay said after last year’s win, per PGATour.com. “He's taken me under his wing and to do it at his place with the advice and encouragement that he's given me over the years is very special for me.”

Hideki Matsuyama Top 10 Finish (+275, DraftKings)

BetQL Projection: +116 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

Matsuyama won this event back in 2014 and has recorded five Top 10 finishes so far this season, including two wins and, most recently, a T3 at the AT&T Byron Nelson a few weeks ago. He ranks 5th on Tour in Scoring Average (Actual), 6th in SG: Approach-The-Green, 8th in Birdie Average and 10th in Total Driving Efficiency, so he has the well-rounded game required to perform at a challenging event like this. BetQL is giving him +116 odds to finish in the Top 10, a value versus the +275 odds you can find at DraftKings right now.

Bryson DeChambeau Top 20 Finish (+380, FanDuel)

BetQL Projection: -128 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

DeChambeau is yet another former winner of this event that’s in the field. The 2018 champ is finally fully healthy and ready to return in a big way at this event. "I'm actually excited," DeChambeau said on Tuesday, per ESPN. "It's been a long time coming. Look, do I know I can finish out the week? Yeah. Do I know that I can contend? Yes. Do I know that I can finally enjoy golf again? Yes. That's a big step for me and my health and my mental state."

He added, "Things have changed a lot for me. I've learned so much about me as a person and my faith and whatnot through golf having [been] stripped away from me. It's been a difficult time for me the past seven months, not being able to play golf the way I really want to. It still is a little tough every once in a while in the hand to hit golf balls, but for the most part, I can't tell you how excited I am to be back out here. I'm very excited.” 

BetQL is giving DeChambeau -128 odds to finish in the Top 20, a massive difference from the +380 odds you can grab at FanDuel. He told reporters, “... I'm able to have 190 [mph] ball speed consistently without really any pain, and I've got control of the golf ball. I'm not forcing anything. I'm excited about that. I'm very, very happy." If he pays off this bet, you will be very, very happy as well.

Daniel Berger Top 40 Finish (-120, FanDuel)

BetQL Projection: -394 ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Berger has finished in the Top 23 of seven out of his 10 events played in 2022 and BetQL is giving him -394 odds to finish in the Top 40 at this event, a stark difference from FanDuel’s surprising -120 odds. He ranks 10th in this field in SG: Tee-To-Green, 11th in this field in SG: Around-The-Green and is a quality golfer, as indicated by the fact that he ranks 22nd on Tour in SG: Total. His 16th-ranked Driving Accuracy Percentage could come in very handy with the long rough at Muirfield and he also ranks 12th on Tour in Scrambling.

These stats don’t tell his entire story either; he dealt with a back injury this season and this course should suit him very well since he’s accurate off the tee and on long approach shots. All-in-all, he’s a fantastic bet to finish in the Top 40 this week and I'll sprinkle some on him to win the event as well.