2022 British Open: Model Picks & Projections

Target these specific golfers at St. Andrews this week

The best golfers in the world will compete on the historic Old Course at St. Andrews in the hopes of winning the Claret Jug and a cool $2.5 million first-place prize at the 2022 British Open. A record $15 million is up for grabs in a field that includes the sport’s biggest names, including Tiger Woods, Rory McIlroy, Jon Rahm, Scottie Scheffler, Jordan Spieth, Justin Thomas, Xander Schauffele, Matthew Fitzpatrick and many more. Log in below or create a new free account to see our PGA Model’s best bets and most notable projections for this tournament!

Our predictive model takes into account overall player performance, recent form, course strengths and weaknesses per player and sportsbook odds. It has been developed and tested throughout previous PGA seasons and has compiled historical data from 25+ years of golfer and course history. Last week, we nailed Kevin Streelman (+600) to finish in the Top 5 at the Barbasol Championship when he finished 2nd. Note: odds presented below were shopped among our sportsbook partners to identify the best values. Content is free for a limited time. All statistics below were found on PGATour.com. Star ratings are on 1-5 scale (1 being least valuable, 5 being most valuable).

MORE: British Open Deep Sleepers To Consider

The best golfers in the world will compete on the historic Old Course at St. Andrews in the hopes of winning the Claret Jug and a cool $2.5 million first-place prize at the 2022 British Open. A record $15 million is up for grabs in a field that includes the sport’s biggest names, including Tiger Woods, Rory McIlroy, Jon Rahm, Scottie Scheffler, Jordan Spieth, Justin Thomas, Xander Schauffele, Matthew Fitzpatrick and many more. Log in below or create a new free account to see our PGA Model’s best bets and most notable projections for this tournament!

Our predictive model takes into account overall player performance, recent form, course strengths and weaknesses per player and sportsbook odds. It has been developed and tested throughout previous PGA seasons and has compiled historical data from 25+ years of golfer and course history. Last week, we nailed Kevin Streelman (+600) to finish in the Top 5 at the Barbasol Championship when he finished 2nd. Note: odds presented below were shopped among our sportsbook partners to identify the best values. Content is free for a limited time. All statistics below were found on PGATour.com. Star ratings are on 1-5 scale (1 being least valuable, 5 being most valuable).

MORE: British Open Deep Sleepers To Consider

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Let's start off with the most notable golfers who will tee off this week. What you see above reflects our model's projections for each player, combined with the implied odds. Justin Thomas has a 7.40% chance (+1254 implied odds) to win, a 26.01% chance (+284) to log a Top 5 finish and a 40.23% chance (+149) to produce a Top 10 Finish.

As I will get to more below, his all-around game is suited well for this course and he's popping in our model as the golfer with the best chance to win this week.

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Jon Rahm (7.25% chance to win, 25.62% Top 5, 39.8% Top 10) and Rory McIlroy (7.25%, 25.62%, 39.54%) have nearly identical projections in the model and both are just a notch below Thomas and a tier above Scottie Scheffler (5.75%, 21.52%, 34.96%). Jordan Spieth (3.71%, 15.32%, 26.74%) doesn't grade out particularly well this week and while all eyes will be on Tiger Woods as always, we're giving him a 0.003% chance to win (+29841 implied odds), a 1.98% chance to finish in the Top 5 (+4961) and a 4.79% chance to finish in the Top 10 (+1990).

Therefore, if you trust the data and our projections, don't fall for any Woods-related odds boosts that sportsbooks love to create. Now, let's get to the best finishing position bets using the model as a guide.

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Justin Thomas To Win (+2200, BetMGM)

BetQL Value: ⭐⭐⭐⭐ (+1252)

2022 PGA Championship winner Justin Thomas missed the cut at last week’s Scottish Open, which was a letdown. However, he's is popping in our model this week for a number of reasons. The last three winners at this event finished in the Top 3 in Birdie Percentage. It just so happens that Thomas ranks 1st on the PGA Tour in Birdie Average, 1st in Scoring Average (Actual) and 1st in Par Breakers (how often one shoots better than par). Three of the last four winners finished in the Top 3 in Par 4 scoring. He ranks 1st in Par 4 Scoring Average as well. Nice.

Avoiding the 110 bunkers and limiting damage out of them will be essential this week. JT ranks 7th on Tour in Sand Save Percentage. Reducing three-putts, especially on the 14 holes that share greens, will be very important, too. Thomas ranks 3rd in Putting Average, 4th in One-Putt Percentage and went 305 consecutive holes without a 3-Putt earlier this season. To add, he ranks 3rd on Tour in SG: Total, 4th in the field in SG: Tee-To-Green and 6th on Tour in SG: Tee-To-Green. So, while his best British Open finish came with a T11th finish at Royal Portrush in 2019, he’s a fantastic option to earn the Claret Jug this week.

BetQL is listing him at +1252, which makes his +2200 odds on BetMGM a four-star value.

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Jon Rahm Top 5 Finish (+410, FanDuel)

BetQL Value: ⭐⭐⭐⭐ (+290)

Jon Rahm has made the cut in 12 straight majors and brings some elite statistical prowess onto this course after finishing T55 at the Scottish Open last week. The Spaniard ranks 1st on Tour in SG: Off-The-Tee, 1st in Driving Distance - All Drives, 1st in Going For The Green - Hit Green Percentage, 3rd in Greens In Regulation Percentage, 6th in SG: Tee-To-Green and 7th in SG: Total. Rahm is a streaky player who can get hot at any moment. He went 34 consecutive holes with a par or better earlier this season (best on Tour) and BetQL is listing him at +290 to finish in the Top 5, a discount against FanDuel’s +410 odds.

Patrick Cantlay Top 10 Finish (+280, FanDuel)

BetQL Value: ⭐⭐⭐⭐ (+181)

Patrick Cantlay is in solid form right now, finishing T4 at the Scottish Open last week with a fourth round 67. Before that, he logged T13 (Travelers Championship), T14 (U.S. Open) and T3 (Memorial Tournament) performances. He ranks 5th on Tour in Birdie Average, 7th in Going For The Green - Birdie Or Better, 8th in Scoring Average, 9th in One-Putt Percentage, 11th in the field in SG: Putting and 12th on Tour in SG: Total. Talk about a well-rounded game. BetQL’s model is listing him at +181 to finish in the Top 10, a solid value when considering FanDuel’s +280 odds of that outcome.

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Dustin Johnson Top 20 Finish (+160, DraftKings)

BetQL Value: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ (-123)

Johnson may be on the LIV Tour now, but he’s impossible to ignore this week. He finished T8 at last year’s British Open at Royal St. George’s and ranks 11th on Tour in Total Driving Efficiency, 17th in SG: Approach-The-Green, 18th in Birdie Average and 20th in Proximity To Hole. As one of the sport's elite iron artists, he will be one to watch. BetQL is giving him -123 odds and projecting him to finish in the Top 20. Since DraftKings is listing him at +160, you should take advantage of the value ASAP.

Webb Simpson Top 40 Finish (+160, BetMGM)

BetQL Value: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ (-274)

Simpson has finished in the Top 40 in four of his last five events, recorded a T19 finish at last year’s Open Championship and finished T40 on this course in 2015. He ranks 2nd on Tour in Proximity To Hole From Sand (a metric that matters this week), 7th in Total Driving Efficiency, 13th in Putting Average, 29th in Proximity To Hole, 37th in Scoring Average (Actual) and 40th in SG: Around-The-Green, thus making him an excellent pick here. BetQL is giving him -274 odds to finish in the Top 40, compared to BetMGM’s +160 designation.

Russell Henley Top 40 Finish (+160, BetMGM)

BetQL Value: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ (-248)

After a missed cut at the U.S. Open and T60 at the PGA Championship, Henley isn’t in good form at the moment. However, there are a number of data points that indicate he’s a solid target to finish in the Top 40. He ranks 2nd on Tour in SG: Approach-The-Green, 9th in the field in SG: Around-The-Green, 9th in Birdie Or Better Average, 15th in SG: Tee-To-Green, 16th in Scoring Average, 17th in Par 5 Scoring, 27th in Par 4 Scoring and 28th in Par 3 Scoring. Therefore, BetQL is projecting him at -248 odds to finish within the Top 40, compared to the +160 odds you can get at BetMGM right now.

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