2022 AT&T Byron Nelson Best Bets & Sleeper Picks

TPC Craig Ranch in McKinney, Texas will host the 2022 AT&T Byron Nelson as 156 players are poised to compete for the $9.1 million purse on the Par-72, 7,468-yard course. With the PGA Championship coming up next week, this is the final tune-up before the Tour’s next major. Last year, this ranked as the 5th-easiest course on Tour (out of 51), per PGATour.com, and the top 36 players all made 20 or more birdies, there were only nine rounds over par from the top 54 players for the entire week and the top 60 players were 10-under or better (the top six finished 20-under or better). Therefore, expect some low scores this week and the winner to go extremely low. 

As you might expect, there’s a lot of room on fairways, so there’s less emphasis than usual in accuracy off the tee, and greens are among the easiest to read anywhere on Tour. With $1.63 million to first and 500 FedExCup points at stake for the champion, let’s take a look at our model’s best bet to win the event and some other finishing position values. Last week, our model accurately projected Jason Day’s Top 30 Finish (+280) and Denny McCarthy’s Top 40 Finish (+140) at the Wells Fargo Championship.

Our predictive model takes into account overall player performance, recent form, course strengths and weaknesses per player and sportsbook odds. It has been developed and tested throughout previous PGA seasons and has compiled historical data from 25+ years of golfer and course history. Note: odds presented below were shopped among our sportsbook partners to identify the best values. Content is free for a limited time. All statistics below were found on PGATour.com. Star ratings are on 1-5 scale (1 being least valuable, 5 being most valuable).

Justin Thomas To Win (+1300, FanDuel)

BetQL Projection: +509 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

Justin Thomas is having another great season. He’s made 11 of 11 cuts. He’s finished in the Top 10 six times already (four Top 5 finishes) and made $2,784,411 on the course alone. However, he hasn’t captured an elusive win. JT ranks 1st in Birdie Or Better Percentage among the golfers in this field and 2nd in the field in SG: Approach-The-Green. He ranks 3rd on Tour in SG: Tee-To-Green and has the ability to dominate a golf course as we’ve seen multiple times in the past. BetQL is giving him +509 odds to win this tournament, a massive discount against the +1300 odds you can get on FanDuel right now. He’s one of nine Top 20 golfers in the world playing in this event, but the data suggests that he stands out above the rest. 

Dustin Johnson Top 5 Finish (+450, FanDuel)

BetQL Projection: +229 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

Coming off of a missed cut at the RBC Heritage, this is a great spot for Dustin Johnson to get back on track. He ranks 6th in this field in Birdie or better percentage and 6th on Tour in Proximity To Hole on approach shots. As someone who has made a living with his elite iron play over the years, it’s difficult to imagine a scenario in which Johnson struggles finding the large greens with ease and taking advantage of the simple putting surfaces. There are less risky bets, sure, but at +450 on FanDuel, you can capture a ton of value since BetQL is listing him at +229 to finish in the Top 5. Since Johnson’s shortcomings have come around the green (-.177 SG: Around-The-Green, 167th), this course should provide him with ample opportunities to get the ball on the putting surface and put less emphasis on his short game.

Hideki Matsuyama Top 10 Finish (+330, DraftKings)

BetQL Projection: +145 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

Hideki Matsuyama is listed at +330 to finish in the Top 10 on DraftKings and we’re listing him at +145, another strong value. He ranks 6th in this field in SG: Approach-The-Green and 10th in this field in Birdie Or Better Percentage, both of which are important metrics to note. This will be Matsuyama’s first event since the Masters and he’s had a great season so far, making 11 of 12 cuts with four Top 10 finishes (two wins) for $4,253,966 in on-course earnings. He’s been dealing with a neck injury but is seemingly back to normal health. Matsuyama ranks 13th on Tour in SG: Tee-To-Green and his aggressive play in long Par 4s and short Par 5s should play to his advantage here. He ranks 5th on Tour in Going For The Green; in 154 qualified shots, he went for the green 116 times (75.32% frequency). That innate willingness to go for the green can come in handy when you need to post low scores.

Maverick McNealy Top 30 Finish (+160, FanDuel)

BetQL Projection: -141 ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Maverick McNealy is no stranger of going low. In fact, he ranks T11th on Tour in Rounds In The 60s. The 26 year old has finished in the Top 30 eight times already this season and our model is giving him -141 odds to do so again in this tournament, a difference from FanDuel’s +160 odds. McNealy has a solid all-around game, as evidenced by the fact that he ranks 31st on Tour in SG: Total, 32nd in SG: Off-The-Tee, 36th in SG: Putting and 44th in SG: Tee-To-Green. In this Top 30 range, you can do a whole lot worse than getting plus money on a quality golfer that BetQL is giving favorable odds to.

Matt Kuchar Top 40 Finish (+120, FanDuel)

BetQL Projection: -178 ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Kuchar has been a consistent golfer for the entirety of his career and the 43 year old has shown an ability to post some impressive scores as a veteran. He ranks T18th on Tour in Rounds In The 60s and before he finished 49th at the Wells Fargo Championship, he finished 3rd at the RBC Heritage and 2nd at the Valero Texas Open. Before that: 16th at the Valspar Championship. Not bad, huh? BetQL is giving him -178 odds to finish in the Top 40 at this event, and you can still get him at +120 at FanDuel right now. Kuchar ranks 35th on Tour in SG: Total, but thrives with his putter, as displayed by his 14th SG: Putting ranking. He should eat up these easy greens this week and deliver a Top 40 finish.