Euro 2020 Match Previews, Picks for Monday

Breaking down Monday's matchups for the 20202 Euros

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The fun at the 2020 Euros continues on Monday, starting with Scotland making its first appearance in a major tournament since 1998. Later, three-time champions Spain gets their campaign started. Let’s take a deeper look at all three matches on the schedule for Monday.

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Scotland vs Czech Republic, Group D

The Scots will get the benefit of playing this game at home, but whether they have the players to find success at a major international tournament remains to be seen. Granted, there are a few big-time players on this squad, including Liverpool fullback Andy Robertson and Manchester United midfielder Scott McTominay. There are a few more players with Premier League experience on the Scotland team, which should pay dividends. But the biggest questions facing Scotland heading into the Euros are in the attacking part of the field. There is just one player on the roster who has more than five international goals. Forwards like Lyndon Dykes and Che Adams are very much unproven at the international level, so finishing chances against quality competition is a concern.

Of course, the Czechs also have questions about how they’ll stack up in a major tournament. Their only wins this year have come against Estonia and Albania, although the Czechs did manage an impressive draw with Belgium in March. However, they’ve conceded nine goals in five matches this year, so they need to be better defensively. On the bright side, the Czech Republic has a strong midfield that can help them control the time of possession. The likes of Patrik Schick and Michael Krmenčík also have a good goal-scoring record at the international level to make the Czechs a threat in the final third.

These two teams actually met twice last year in the Nationals League with Scotland winning both games. That should give the Scots plenty of confidence, especially playing at home. But this is also a big moment for Scotland, and that pressure could work against them. Ultimately, our model doesn’t see much of a difference between these two teams.

Prediction: 1-1 draw

Poland vs Slovakia, Group E

The time has come for Polish superstar Robert Lewandowski to step up on the international stage. He’s arguably the best striker in the world right now and is coming off an incredible season with Bayern Munich. However, he and Poland have always fallen short at big international tournaments. Even more concerning is the fact that Poland has just one win in its last seven games, conceding 12 goals in those games. Outside of Lewandowski, the squad is solid but unspectacular. While they can hold their own against most teams, at least for a little while, Lewandowski needs to be at his best for the Poles to get results.

Likewise, the Slovaks aren’t in the best form heading into the Euros. They have just one win in their last six games and three wins in 13 matches since September 2020. On the other hand, Slovakia has gone five straight matches without a loss, as they’ve played well enough defensively to manage a few draws. However, against Poland, Slovakia might have to go searching for three points with Spain and Sweden left to play. Captain Marek Hamšík is still one of Slovakia’s best playmakers at age 33, but the team’s strikers are unproven at this level. Michal Ďuriš has never found much success scoring goals at this level, which could put some pressure on 21-year-old Róbert Boženík to take the reigns as Slovakia’s goal-scoring threat.

Think of this game as a catch-22. Poland has looked vulnerable defensively in the lead-up to the Euros. But Slovakia may not have the quality in the final third to take advantage of that. Meanwhile, Slovakia can be solid and well-organized defensively. However, they will have to find a way to contain the world’s best striker. In the end, it’s best to give Lewandowski and the Poles the benefit of the doubt.

Prediction: Poland 2-1

Spain vs Sweden, Group E

There’s no question that Spain has the talent to dominate bad teams, but outside of a 6-0 win over Germany last November, La Roja has mostly settled for draws against quality opponents. Sweden will surely fall under that category, so this will be a test for the Spaniards. Spain is also dealing with some COVID-19 issues, so it remains to be seen whether they’ll be at full strength for their opening match. Even at full strength, there are lingering questions about Spain’s ability to score goals. Alvaro Morata doesn’t look convincing right now, which could put the burden on 21-year-old Ferran Torres. Meanwhile, the Spanish midfield is in good shape but the backline is lacking experience in major tournaments, so Luis Enrique may not be pleased about having to face Sweden right off the bat.

As for the Swedes, they won’t be without the services of star striker Zlatan Ibrahimovic in this tournament after he suffered an injury late in the Serie A season. The good news is that Sweden reached the quarterfinals of the 2018 World Cup without Ibrahimovic, so his absence isn’t a dealbreaker for them. This is an experienced group that won’t be intimidated by Spain or the big stage. At the same time, this is also one of the older teams in the tournament, so one has to be a little concerned about how they match up athletically against some of the younger Spanish players, especially La Roja’s midfielders and forwards. The Swedes will also need big performances from players like Emil Forsberg and Marcus Berg if they hope to break down the Spanish backline.

Despite some of the questions about Spain, they will be at home and they still have plenty of skill in the midfield to control the ball and keep Sweden out of sync. Being at home for the opening match should also give the Spaniards a nice lift, especially if they can’t put their best lineup on the field. While this game figures to be competitive, our model favors Spain to find a way to come out on top.

Prediction: Spain 2-1

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