Euro 2020 Match Previews, Picks for Friday and Saturday

One year later than expected, Friday marks the first day of the 2020 Euros. As is customary, there is just one game on the first day of the tournament. However, the action will pick up in a hurry with three more games on Saturday and at least two games every day through the end of the Group Stage on June 23. Let’s kick off the fun by taking a closer look at the games on Friday and Saturday.

Italy vs. Turkey, Group A

It’s been nearly a decade since the Italians made a lot of noise at a major tournament, although they enter the 2020 Euros as the favorites to win Group A and perhaps a sleeper to win the whole thing. The Italians haven’t lost a game since September 2018, so it’s possible we are seeing a resurgence under manager Roberto Mancini. The key, of course, has been defense. Italy has held eight straight clean sheets and allowed just two goals in 13 matches since the start of 2020. That remains Italy’s bread and butter, although whether they can score goals in this tournament is another matter. Ciro Immobile likely holds the key, as he’s been in great form with his club team over the past two seasons and now needs to translate that to the international stage.

To be fair, Turkey is also in a good run of form, although they’ve played a lower level of competition. That being said, the Turks beat the Netherlands in March and managed draws with the likes of Germany, Croatia, and others in 2020, so they will feel like they can play with the Italians. Of course, they are less defensively savvy than the Italians and will be more interested in trying to create a more open game. The question is whether 35-year-old captain Burak Yılmaz still has some goals in him.

Our model gives Italy a 62.5% chance of winning this game. While the Turks are poised to make this an interesting and entertaining game, they might have a tough time getting through the Italian defense. At the same time, Turkey might be vulnerable against the counterattack, which is where Italy does its best work moving forward.

Prediction: Italy 2-0

Wales vs. Switzerland, Group A

While Wales has an intriguing group of attacking players led by Gareth Bale, the Dragons have struggled to score goals recently. They couldn’t even find a goal in a recent friendly against Albania. In 13 matches since the start of 2020, Wales has managed just 10 goals, with four of them coming in two matches against Finland. On paper, the Wales attack is the strength of the team while it’s the backline that has to figure things out.

On the contrary, Switzerland is known for its organization defensively. Even if that hasn’t necessarily been the case over the last 18 months, the Swiss will likely bring their best defensive effort to a major tournament despite a somewhat inexperienced backline. Oddly enough, this is one of the best attacking teams that Switzerland has brought to a major tournament in a while. Xherdan Shaquiri can break down defenses and create moments of magic while the likes of Haris Seferović, Admir Mehmedi, and Mario Gavranović have all proven that they can score goals at the international level.

The Swiss are reasonable favorites heading into this game with a 42% chance of winning compared to Wales at 26%. With Bale and some young speedsters, Wales has a chance to pull off a surprise. However, if the Swiss can live up to their reputation defensively, they should be able to manage the match and create plenty of scoring chances themselves.

Prediction: Switzerland 2-1

Denmark vs Finland, Group B

Just being here is a big deal for Finland, a country that has never qualified for a major tournament before. Naturally, the Fins are considered massive underdogs to advance out of the Group Stage and haven’t been in strong form lately. Finland is winless in six straight matches, including a recent loss to Estonia in the team’s last warm-up match. In terms of experience playing in major European leagues, the Fins are also lacking. However, Teemu Pukki of Norwich City is a proven goal scorer in the Premier League while goalkeeper Lukáš Hrádecký has spent half a dozen years in the Bundesliga. Those players will need to be at their best to give Finland a chance.

As for the Danes, they are perfectly positioned to get off to a fast start in this tournament. They’ve lost just twice since the start of 2020, and both came against Belgium. The Danes have beaten the likes of England, Sweden, and Austria over the last 18 months and managed a draw with Germany in a recent friendly. Defensively, they are sound and experienced, especially with Leicester City’s Kasper Schmeichel in goal. On the attack, Denmark isn’t overly dangerous, although Christian Eriksen can unlock any defense if he’s in good form. The key is whether Martin Braithwaite and Yussuf Poulsen can finish their chances in front of goal.

Finland is being given just a 12% chance of winning by our model while Denmark is at 67%. With a goalie who plays for a top Bundesliga team and a striker who’s proven himself in the Premier League, Finland has great value because they could create the moments of magic necessary to pull off the upset. However, the Danes have looked locked in lately and have great balance all over the field, which should help them avoid a letdown in the opening match.

Prediction: Denmark 3-0

Belgium vs Russia, Group B

There are expectations around the Russian team after they went to the Quarterfinals of the last World Cup. They will also get a chance to play Belgium in Saint Petersburg, giving them the same edge they had at the 2018 World Cup. That being said, the Russians have just five wins in 13 matches since the start of 2020. They’ve had some disappointing results against teams that are nowhere near as talented as Belgium, which creates some concerns. That being said, we saw players like Denis Cheryshev raise their level on the big stage at the last World Cup, so it’s not impossible to think that Russia could do the same at the Euros on home soil.

Meanwhile, the Belgians are facing pressure of a different kind, as this figures to be the last chance their Golden Generation has of winning a major tournament. There is also some uncertainty over whether Kevin De Bruyne will be ready for the team’s first couple of games after getting hurt in the Champions League Final. That being said, the Red Devils have plenty of other scoring options, especially given the recent form of striker Romelu Lukaku at Inter Milan. The Belgians should have enough depth in the midfield to get by without De Bruyne. However, the age and reduced mobility of their backline is something to watch, even if that group has great experience and continuity from years of playing together.

Projections give Belgium a nearly 59% chance of beating Russia, who has just a 17% chance to win and might be better off trying to pick up a point. Playing at home could give the Russians a slight edge. But given the talent difference and Belgium’s urgency heading into this tournament, it won’t be enough to get a result.

Prediction: Belgium 3-1