Champions League Preview and Pick: Real Madrid vs. Chelsea

All of the Super League nonsense is behind us, for the most part, as the Champions League semifinals get started Tuesday with the first leg between Real Madrid and Chelsea. At home, Real Madrid is favored with a moneyline of +138 compared to the Chelsea moneyline of +230. There is also a moneyline of +228 if the first leg ends in a draw.

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Real Madrid Preview

Real Madrid head into the Champions League semifinals with some of their concentration undoubtedly on the La Liga title race. Zinedine Zidane’s squad suffered a frustrating scoreless draw against Real Betis over the weekend, keeping them behind intra-city rival Atletico Madrid in the La Liga table. If Los Blancos hope to win the league title, Zidane knows that there is no margin for error over the final five domestic matches of the season, which could have an impact on his squad selection for Tuesday’s game.

One player who will surely start Tuesday’s game will be Karim Benzema, who leads the team with 21 goals in La Liga and five goals in Champions League. The Frenchman also scored two goals in the team’s win last week over Cadiz. However, Real Madrid doesn’t have a second player who presents a consistent goal-scoring threat. Brazilian midfielder Casemiro is the club’s second-leading scorer in La Liga this season with just five goals. Zinedine’s squad has also been held without a goal in three of its last four games, including a scoreless draw with Liverpool in the second leg of the Champions League quarterfinals.

On the other side of the coin, Real Madrid has also kept four consecutive clean sheets. In fact, they’ve conceded just two goals in their last seven games across all competitions. They were even able to throw Lionel Messi off his game during a win over Barcelona earlier this month, making it tough to find a team anywhere in Europe that’s playing better defensively right now.

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Chelsea Preview

Much like Real Madrid, Chelsea will play Tuesday’s match perhaps distracted by their domestic situation. The Blues beat West Ham United 1-0 over the weekend, bumping Thomas Tuchel’s side into the top-4 of the Premier League table. But with five matches left, there are four teams within six points of that spot, so Chelsea’s work is far from over in the Premier League, even as they chase Champions League glory.

Another similarity to Real Madrid is Chelsea’s defensive record in recent weeks. Since an embarrassing 5-2 defeat against West Bromwich Albion to start the month of April, Tuchel’s side has conceded just two goals in six matches. That stretch now includes three straight clean sheets, most notably a 1-0 win over Manchester City in the FA Cup semifinals. Chelsea’s formation with three center-backs is working wonders for the Blues, who have allowed the second-fewest goals in the Premier League this season.

Naturally, Chelsea’s problem is that they can’t score goals. Across all competitions, the Blues have scored just twice in their last four games. While Timo Werner scored the game-winner against West Ham over the weekend, Tuchel doesn’t seem to have much faith in him or Tammy Abraham as the team’s striker. Both have scored just six goals in the Premier League this season, which is tied for the team-high with midfielders Mason Mount and Jorginho. Meanwhile, Olivier Giroud is Chelsea’s leading scorer in Champions League, scoring six goals in seven games, making the selection process all the more challenging for the manager.

The Pick

This game is almost screaming out for a scoreless draw with the way both teams have played defense lately. Given Chelsea’s lack of scoring prowess in recent games and Madrid’s limited options outside of Benzema, it’d be shocking to see a lot of offensive fireworks in this game. But Los Blancos have players who will challenge the defensive wall Chelsea has put up recently, including former Chelsea talisman Eden Hazard, who came off the bench over the weekend after missing more than a month of action. Look for either him or Benzema to find a way through with a solitary goal to give Real Madrid the slimmest of victories.

Pick: Real Madrid +138