Champions League Preview and Pick: PSG vs. Manchester City

The more intriguing matchup of the two Champions League semifinals features French side PSG and the presumptive champions of England Manchester City. The two sides play the first leg of the semifinals on Wednesday in Paris with Manchester City a slight road favorite at +122. At home, PSG has a moneyline of +215 while a draw has a moneyline of +284.

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PSG Preview

Most years, PSG goes all-out to a Champions League title, which has led to some heavy disappointment in recent seasons. However, the Parisians have had to work hard on the domestic front this season, as they are in the midst of a tight, three-way battle with Lille and Monaco for the Ligue 1 crown. That’s made it difficult for Mauricio Pochettino to balance the club’s ambitions in two competitions. Nevertheless, Pochettino has pressed most of the right buttons recently, as PSG has won three in a row and five of six games since losing 1-0 to Lille at the start of April.

At their best, PSG offers one of the most dynamic attacks in the world behind Brazilian star Neymar and 22-year-old wunderkind Kylian Mbappé. The Parisians have scored at least three goals in five of their last six games, totaling 18 goals during that span. The only game they were held scoreless during that stretch was the Champions League quarterfinals with Bayern Munich in which they held an aggregate lead heading into the match and just needed to avoid a lopsided loss. Mbappe, of course, is red hot, scoring five times in his last three games. Neymar, meanwhile, has been less reliable because injuries have forced him in and out of the lineup all season. 

Defensively, things could be a little tighter for PSG. Pochettino’s squad has kept just one clean sheet in its last eight matches across all competitions. In fairness, they’ve only allowed 10 goals in those eight games and have the second-best defensive record in Ligue 1. But the backline has been a revolving door in recent weeks, leading to some inconsistency within that group. However, the Parisians are hopeful that center-back Marquinhos and goalie Keylor Navas will both feature against Man City after missing time due to injury this month, which should help to solidify the PSG defense.

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Manchester City Preview

Manchester City captured its first trophy of the season on Sunday, winning the England Carabao Cup. That should allow Pep Guardiola’s team to focus on the Champions League, especially with a 10-point cushion atop the Premier League with five matches left to play. This could finally be the year that Guardiola and City conquer Champions League, a trophy that has eluded the Citizens during the tenure of their Spanish manager. However, Man City has lost two of its last five matches, so the team’s form is down just slightly.

The Man City attack isn’t necessarily clicking on all cylinders at the moment. They’ve gone nine straight games without scoring more than twice in a game, which matters against a team like PSG. Plus, the Citizens have scored a modest six goals in their last five games. They also required an 82nd-minute goal off the head of center-back Aymeric Laporte to win Sunday’s cup final 1-0. While there is no shortage of attacking talent in the squad, especially with playmaking midfielder Kevin De Bruyne back from injury, Raheem Sterling and Riyad Mahrez have combined for just one goal in the month of April.

On the bright side, Manchester City has conceded the fewest goals in the Premier League this season. A shocking loss to Leeds United earlier this month is the only time they’ve allowed a team to score more than one goal against them since a 5-2 win over Southampton on March 10. Of course, much of City’s defensive prowess comes from spending a vast majority of the game with possession of the ball, limiting the opportunities their opponents have to push forward. Naturally, the deeper they get into Champions League, the harder it is to sustain high levels of possession, which has been a factor in City’s downfall during the competition in recent years.

The Pick

This game has the potential to get a little crazy. Both teams may come out a little conservative while trying to feel out the other team, but it’s in the nature of each to win possession of the ball and attack. Even with Neymar and some of Man City’s stars struggling to find the back of the net recently, there are bound to be some goals scored in this game. However, keep in mind that this is just the first leg of the semifinals, which means both managers will be afraid of losing the match, especially losing by more than one goal. That should lead to a competitive yet cerebral battle that’s close for 90 minutes. Ultimately, the best value for bettors is picking a draw, which is likely in the first leg of a matchup like this.

Pick: Draw +284