Sharp Bettors Have Been Targeting This Bundesliga Team
Paderborn has already clinched relegation and expert bettors have capitalized on their struggles
SC Paderborn 07 is 4-8-21 on the season, have a -36 goal differential (35 goals for, 71 against) and sit dead-last out of 18 teams on the Bundesliga table.
In other words, they’re awful. So bad that all of those numbers above rank dead-last in the league.
As you might imagine, their recent form has been abysmal. Following their 3-1 loss to Borussia Monchengladbach in Matchday 33, they are winless in their last 14 matches (0-5-9) and were last victorious on January 25th against SC Freiburg.
In recent weeks, sharp bettors have fully turned Paderborn, who clinched their relegation when they lost to Union Berlin on Saturday, June 14th.
As you can see via BetQL’s Bundesliga Sharp Picks Dashboard above, 70% of public tickets and 99% of total money backed Union Berlin (-126) against Paderborn (+322) in that contest. The result was a 1-0 victory for Union, who are just 11-5-17 and in 12th place, by the way.
On this past Saturday, Paderborn was a +1094 underdog, which created enough upside to sway 45% of public bets. However, sharp bettors absolutely hammered Monchengladbach, who improved to 19-5-9 with a 3-1 victory and are currently in 4th place in the Bundesliga standings.
While betting $100 to win $20.33 isn’t exactly a fun experience, sharp bettors made a clear statement: they’re targeting this Paderborn team.
In the final Matchday of the 2019-2020 Bundesliga season, Paderborn takes on Eintracht Frankfurt, who need a win to guarantee a Top 10 league finish. Frankfurt is currently in 9th place with a 12-6-15 record, but have been in solid form recently, going 4-1-2 in their last seven matches. One of those losses was a 2-1 nail-biter against league champions Bayern Munich as well.
As you might imagine, Paderborn opened as a large underdog (+616) while Frankfurt (-253) opened as the clear favorite. Will sharp bettors continue to target the demoralized relegated club? Only time will tell.
Luckily, if you have a BetQL Bundesliga, La Liga, Serie A or Premier League subscription, you get immediate access to sharp data for every match! Click the button below to take advantage of our discounted pricing and get started right now!
Sharp Betting 101: Why Accessing Sharp Data Matters
There are several ways you can improve your betting ROI using sharp data.
Sharp bettors are considered pros due to the fact that they typically wager the most money and are usually responsible for moving lines. Sharps usually get heavy action on their targeted bets soon after odds are released. Having access to those targets is extremely powerful.
The higher the Pro Edge/Pro Money Advantage, the more sharp bettors are favoring a particular bet over the public. The lower the Pro Edge/Pro Money Advantage, the more sharp bettors are aligned with the public. For example:
You’re planning to bet on the Nets (-9) against the Knicks. Brooklyn is a decent public bet (63% of tickets are wagered on them), but a whopping 95% of the money is wagered on the Nets, showing a 32% Pro Edge - a huge sharp bet. Therefore, you feel more confident in locking in the bet on Brooklyn.
In that same scenario, if 63% of tickets were wagered on the Nets (-9), but 72% of the money was wagered on the Knicks (a 35% Pro Money Advantage in their favor: 72% of the money - 37% of tickets), it might make you hesitant to bet on Brooklyn and might even sway you to back New York.
Betting with the sharps doesn’t work every single time, but if you want to consistently make informed bets by utilizing sharp data, your bankroll will most likely grow over time.