Bundesliga Preview and Pick: Wolfsburg vs. Borussia Dortmund

Breakdown and Best Bet for Wolfsburg-Borussia Dortmund

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The race for the top four spots in the German Bundesliga comes to a head this weekend when Vfl Wolfsburg play host to Borussia Dortmund. The early betting odds list Dortmund has a favorite on the road with a +120 moneyline compared to Wolfsburg at +204. There is also a moneyline of +281 for a draw.

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Wolfsburg Preview

Wolfsburg currently sits third in the Bundesliga standings with 57 points. With four matches left in the season, the Wolves have no chance to catch Bayern Munich atop the table. However, Oliver Glasner’s squad has a somewhat comfortable five-point cushion over fifth-place Borussia Dortmund to secure Champions League football for next season. Wolfsburg is also coming off an impressive 3-1 mid-week win over Stuttgart, putting the Wolves back on track after back-to-back losses that worked to tighten up the race for the top-4 spots.

Despite the recent losses, the Wolfsburg attack has been clicking on all cylinders recently. The Wolves have scored eight goals in their last three games and 16 goals over their last six Bundesliga matches. The club’s leading scorer this season Wout Weghorst has been at the center of things, scoring six times in his last seven games. Oddly enough, no other player in the Wolfsburg squad has scored more than once over the team’s last five games and no one other than Weghorst, who has 19 goals this season, has scored more than six goals during the Bundesliga season.

Of course, conceding goals is suddenly a concern for Wolfsburg. The club has allowed the second-fewest goals in the Bundesliga this season, conceding 29 in 30 games. But they’ve allowed eight goals in their last three games, matching the number they’ve scored during that span. In fairness, most of those goals have come against first-place Bayern Munich and fourth-place Eintracht Frankfurt. But that doesn’t necessarily mean the Wolfsburg defense will be shored up against Borussia Dortmund.

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Borussia Dortmund Preview

It could be now or never for Dortmund and interim manager Edin Terzić ahead of this week’s clash with Wolfsburg. BVB has pushed hard late in the season to climb into one of the Champions League spots, and the pressure is on after getting eliminated by Manchester City in the quarterfinals of this year’s competition. With four matches left, Dortmund is four points behind Eintracht Frankfurt for fourth place and five points behind Wolfsburg, making this week’s game with the Wolves one that Borussia Dortmund must win.

Outside of getting knocked out of Champions League by Man City, things are moving in the right direction for BVB. The boys in black and yellow have won three straight Bundesliga games, out-scoring opponents 9-3 during that span. The good news is that only two of those nine goals have come from Norwegian striker Erling Haaland, who has netted 23 Bundesliga goals this season. Including Champions League games, Marco Reus has scored three goals in his last five games. Mats Hummels, Giovanni Reyna, and Jude Bellingham are also capable playmakers. Jadon Sancho also came on as a sub on Wednesday and could feature against Wolfsburg this weekend.

On the defensive side, things are looking up for BVB after keeping a clean sheet Wednesday against Union Berlin. Unfortunately, there was only Dortmund’s second clean sheet since the first week of March. They’ve conceded 42 times in 30 Bundesliga games, as it’s been a struggle playing the same four players along the backline from one game to the next throughout the season. 

The Pick

Desperation is on Dortmund’s side, which has been evident in their last few matches. Also, BVB has a little more class in the attacking third. Especially with Sancho available for selection, Haaland and his supporting cast should create more trouble than Weghorst and the Wolfsburg attacking band. Alas, Dortmund’s defensive record this season is a little troubling, despite keeping a clean sheet against Wolfsburg in early January. The road team will score a goal or two, but they won’t be able to keep Wolfsburg off the score sheet, which means the teams will share the points.

Pick: Draw

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