2021 Men's French Open Preview and Picks

History

The 2nd Grand Slam of the year has been staged since 1891. It started off on sand surface but transitioned to clay from 1908.

Rafael Nadal is the absolute GOAT of the event with 13 singles titles, which includes 5 in a row 2010-2014.

By no surprise, the Spaniard is the defending champion after straight forward victory against Novak Djokovic in a heavy weather condition in last September.

Favorites and Top Seeds

We will not be seeing another Nadal – Djokovic final this year, as arguably the best players on this surface were drawn at the same part of the draw.

Top Half

Novak Djokovic leads the pack as the World No.1 will look to win his 2nd French Open title. No player has made a career grand slam with winning all 4 tournaments at least twice with both Djokovic and Federer missing another Roland Garros title while Nadal an Australian Open one.

Even with a 78-15 record for the event and 43-7 in last 50 matches you would have still lost money if you bet on him on each player match.

His clay court adventures started off slow, by his lofty standards, with an early loss to Dan Evans in Monte Carlo and a surprising defeat at home in Belgrade to Karatsev, but he returned to the very known high level making it all the way to Rome Final where he eventually lost to Rafael Nadal.

The decision to play the 2nd event in Belgrade just a week prior to a Grand Slam seems awkward especially given the competition there – he would win the title playing only one top 100 player in his 4 matches.

Roger Federer is the highest seed and a potential ¼ final opponent for the Serbian but given how shaky the Swiss was looking in his return match on clay since May 2019, there are some concerns if he will make It that far.

Federer decided to play Geneva as the only preparation tournament for the French Open. This decision didn’t go well with a R2 (he received a bye and didn’t play R1) match to 76-th ranked Pablo Andujar. On top of that the Swiss was leading 4-2 in the decider serving for 5-2 when his game totally collapsed and lost the next and final 4 games. Despite his lack of form and Grass court season on his mind he should how ever make it at least to the 1/8 finals as there are no legitimate threats on paper around him until then, but a potential match against 9th seed Matteo Berrettini could prove to be too much for him at this point of his career.

Rafael Nadal starts his run for 14-th French Open title and 21st overall Grand Slam One which will put him first all time on the list as he is currently splitting the royalties with Federer.

Despite some wobbly performances here and there this clay court season and some nearly losing experiences he was mostly able to achieve results that corresponds to his clay court status. Priced at only -120 to win the event, he has had trouble over the years in some of the tune up tournaments leading to the French, but as soon as someone doubts him, he returns roaring back with another dominating performance. From 103 played matches on this event, he has lost only 3 of them, to Soderling and Djokovic and one was because of a walkover.

He will have his sight on a revenge factor as Andrey Rublev, the 7th seed is his potential 1/8 final opponent.

Andrey Rublev who started the clay court campaign with a bang reaching Monte Carlo’s Final in the middle of April, defeating Nadal along the way, cooled off suddenly with losses against Isner and Sonego in Madrid and Rome while being -330 favorite in both of those.  He lost to Tsitsipas in the ¼ finals last year and it will be a miracle if he gets there again.

Bottom Half  

It was well known that who gets the draw on the side of #2 Daniil Medvedev for sure will benefit a lot.

Despite being No.2 in the world Daniil’s points and achievements have relied heavily on hard court showing. Weeks in a row whenever he has played a clay court event I shared thoughts about how if he can get better on the least favorite surface he could challenge Djokovic for the no.1.  Well rest assured that didn’t happen at all. It got to a point where in his first match in Rome he was priced as underdog to 27th Aslan Karatsev and lost. The Russian has had 4 appearances in Paris losing them all in R1. With a very tricky and unpredictable Bublik in R1, fifth consecutive lost won’t be that much of a surprise to anyone.

Tsitsipas is the biggest winner of the draw,in my opinion, and not only because he has manageable opponents but because he has the best clay record of the year with 16-3 including titles in Monte Carlo, Lyon and losing the final to Nadal in Barcelona while having a match point. The Greek has steadily progressed and last year he lost a 5 setter against Djokovic in Paris and looks like a strong candidate to make it to the final as defeating the winner from Thiem/Zverev seems very likely.

Thiem hasn’t looked like himself, demonstrated with losses to Sonego in Rome and Norrie in Lyon while being -350 favorite in both matches. After reaching the final in Paris in 2019 he took a step back with a defeat to Schwartzman in the QF last year and his lack of form could prove costly if he doesn’t rediscover some of his old self.

Zverev on other hand picked up steam after a slow clay season with a title in Madrid and QF in Rome. His run in Madrid was especially impressive with beating Nadal, Thiem and Berrettini all top 10 players in consecutive matches. Nadal took his revenge in Rome, but the German show some promise on a quest to improve his best record in Paris  - consecutive QF appearances in 2018 and 2019. The German usually falls into his own trap while losing concentration over the years and gets involved in longer matches than it should which proves him costly when he gets deep into the event and face a top 10 player.     

Underdogs and Dark Horses

Top Half

Aslan Karatsev can do some damage in the top half. He finds himself between Schwartzman and Rublev with the Argentinian being a projected 3rd round for the Russian. Diego isn’t himself in 2021 and despite he has SF to defend from last year, he is mired in a 3-match losing streak and already lost to Karatsev in Madrid and looks like a solid pick to cause some trouble before eventually losing to Nadal.

David Goffin is only 5-6 on clay this year and 14-11 overall and is lack of form leads to Lorenzo Musetti being a favorite against him in R1. The tall Italian is limited from the presence of Djokovic, but the draw looks like a good chance to make it to the 1/8 final with the Serb.

 Bottom Half

Casper Ruud is in Thiem’s bracket, but they could eventually meet in the 1/8 finals. Until then he has pretty good chance not only to make it till there but to give the Austrian run for his money as well. The Norwegian threw the bomb in Madrid beating Tsitsipas as a +370 underdog but lost to Berrettini in the semis. He was questionable coming to Geneva with a recent withdrawal from Rome due to wrist problems but everything was put aside with a tournament win. He is in progress mode and would for sure be interesting to see how far he could go as last 2 years he was stopped by Thiem and Federer in R3.   

Picks

Stefanos Tsitsipas got cut in price with the made draw but even at +450 seems like a good value bet for the tournament and +150 to reach the final and is my personal selection. Nadal of course is the clear-cut favorite once again and best of 5 is a whole different animal to tackle, but the Greek has steadily improved and believe he could shine.