NBA Playoffs: Best Bets & Expert Picks For Mavs-Warriors Game 4

BEST BETS: Mavs vs. Warriors Expert Picks

Dan Karpuc: Under 215.5
When Game 3 finished under the 217-point total, the under improved to 35-12-1 (74.5%) in Dallas this season. To put that into perspective, the next-highest win rate for home unders was the Cavaliers (63.4%) and those were the only two teams over 60%. Therefore, this is arguably the most significant season-long NBA trend you’re going to find and it’s tough to ignore it when betting the total in this game. BetQL also lists this as the best bet, which gives me the validation I need to lock it in! From a narrative-based mindset, I also expect Dallas to go all-out defensively and play a very physical game in an attempt to at least record one win in front of their home crowd. As seen throughout the season, when the Mavs control the pace of the game, the under hits at a dominant rate, especially in Dallas. While the Warriors have the clear edge, it’s difficult for me to imagine that it will come easily.

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Lucy Burdge: Warriors +1
After the Warriors went up 3-0 in this series on Sunday, I’m convinced they’re going to pull off the sweep over the Mavericks. The Warriors covered the spread in the first three games as the favorites in the first two and the underdogs in Game 3. With the domination they’ve already shown in this series, I believe in the Warriors to cover this spread and complete the sweep over the Mavericks here.

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Nick Ashooh: Mavericks -1

Nothing has seemed to work for Dallas in the first three games. They've blown leads, shot poorly from 3, then shot better from 3, gotten huge games from Luka Doncic, then had contributions from others besides Doncic -- and yet, they still sit in an 0-3 hole. a loss away from their season ending. Jason Kidd is 16-1 SU as a home favorite of -250 or less while coaching Dallas, though, and with the Mavs' backs against the wall, Golden State could let up just enough given their three-game cushion, allowing Dallas to steal a game at home. Keep an eye on the moneyline price and what the spread will cost you too. With such a small spread, you can shop around a bit for whatever price comes in at a better value for you and still bet the same result.

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